Burnley FC — Middlesbrough FC: Win probabilities, 02.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.4% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 69.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Burnley FC and Middlesbrough FC meet in a Championship contest that looks evenly matched, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. The available assessment points to a competitive game in which the margin between the teams may remain narrow throughout. Middlesbrough FC have a slight edge in the market signal, but the moderate confidence reflects the balance of the fixture rather than a decisive expectation.
The match is projected to be high-scoring, and both Burnley FC and Middlesbrough FC are likely to find the net. A draw remains a credible outcome, while a narrow victory for either team is also within the range of plausible scenarios. The scorelines considered most consistent with this view are 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1, underlining the uncertainty and the potential for an open contest.
What matters before kick-off
Josh Laurent suspended for Burnley
Burnley midfielder Josh Laurent is suspended for the match following a red card in his previous game against Norwich City.
Recent Championship results for both sides
Burnley head into the match following a 4-1 defeat to Norwich City, while Middlesbrough secured a 3-1 victory over West Bromwich Albion.
Middlesbrough injury absence
Middlesbrough midfielder Jeremy Sarmiento is sidelined for the match due to an injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.