Burnley FC — Middlesbrough FC: Win probabilities, 02.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.4% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 69.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.09.2026
Burnley FC
23rd place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Norwich 1:4
- 23.08.2026 away West Brom 1:3
- 16.08.2026 home West Ham 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Wolves 1:1
- 18.05.2026 away Arsenal 0:1
Middlesbrough FC
7th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home West Brom 3:1
- 22.08.2026 away Blackburn 1:2
- 15.08.2026 home Lincoln 2:1
- 02.05.2026 away Wrexham 2:2
- 25.04.2026 home Watford 5:1
This season: Burnley FC at home vs Middlesbrough FC away
| Metric | Burnley FC · at home | Middlesbrough FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.33 | 1.43 |
| xG against per match | 1.33 | 0.91 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 29.12.2024 Middlesbrough FC 0:0 Burnley FC
- 06.12.2024 Burnley FC 1:1 Middlesbrough FC
- 07.04.2023 Middlesbrough FC 1:2 Burnley FC
- 17.12.2022 Burnley FC 3:1 Middlesbrough FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Burnley FC and Middlesbrough FC meet in a Championship contest that looks evenly matched, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. The available assessment points to a competitive game in which the margin between the teams may remain narrow throughout. Middlesbrough FC have a slight edge in the market signal, but the moderate confidence reflects the balance of the fixture rather than a decisive expectation.
The match is projected to be high-scoring, and both Burnley FC and Middlesbrough FC are likely to find the net. A draw remains a credible outcome, while a narrow victory for either team is also within the range of plausible scenarios. The scorelines considered most consistent with this view are 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1, underlining the uncertainty and the potential for an open contest.
What matters before kick-off
Josh Laurent suspended for Burnley
Burnley midfielder Josh Laurent is suspended for the match following a red card in his previous game against Norwich City.
Recent Championship results for both sides
Burnley head into the match following a 4-1 defeat to Norwich City, while Middlesbrough secured a 3-1 victory over West Bromwich Albion.
Middlesbrough injury absence
Middlesbrough midfielder Jeremy Sarmiento is sidelined for the match due to an injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.