Birmingham City — Southampton FC: Win probabilities, 01.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.6% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 65.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.5% / 37.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.1% / 17.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.6% / 41.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.1% / 80.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.09.2026
Birmingham City
9th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 away Wrexham 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Bristol City 2:2
- 15.08.2026 away Sheffield United 0:0
- 02.05.2026 away Portsmouth 1:1
- 25.04.2026 home Bristol City 2:1
Southampton FC
5th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Millwall 5:1
- 22.08.2026 home Stoke 3:1
- 16.08.2026 away Watford 1:2
- 02.05.2026 away Preston 3:1
- 28.04.2026 home Ipswich 2:2
This season: Birmingham City at home vs Southampton FC away
| Metric | Birmingham City · at home | Southampton FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.97 | 1.71 |
| xG against per match | 1.42 | 0.81 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 29.12.2025 Birmingham City 1:1 Southampton FC
- 06.12.2025 Southampton FC 3:1 Birmingham City
- 02.03.2024 Birmingham City 3:4 Southampton FC
- 28.10.2023 Southampton FC 3:1 Birmingham City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Birmingham City and Southampton FC meet in the Championship in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. The 1X signal points towards Birmingham City avoiding defeat, but the balance of the matchup leaves room for different outcomes.
The game is expected to produce a medium level of scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. That suggests a match shaped by attacking contributions from both sides rather than a clear defensive edge. A draw is a credible possibility, while a narrow win for either Birmingham City or Southampton FC also fits the wider assessment. The most likely scoreline indicated is 1:1, with 1:2 and 2:1 also among the plausible outcomes.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Championship results
Birmingham City enter the match following a 2-1 away victory over Wrexham, while Southampton head into the fixture after a dominant 5-1 win against Millwall.
Head-to-head record
Southampton are undefeated in their last six encounters against Birmingham City, recording four victories and two draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.