Bolton Wanderers — Middlesbrough FC: Win probabilities, 23.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 39.6% |
| 12 | 79.2% | |
| X2 | 81.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.2% / 12.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.5% / 53.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.6% / 72.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.10.2026
Bolton Wanderers
15th place · 14 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Southampton 0:0
- 13.10.2026 away Wolves 3:1
- 10.10.2026 home Stoke 1:2
- 20.09.2026 away Norwich 4:3
- 12.09.2026 home Cardiff 1:0
Middlesbrough FC
3rd place · 22 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Cardiff 2:2
- 13.10.2026 away Stoke 3:2
- 10.10.2026 home Wolves 1:0
- 19.09.2026 away Birmingham 2:2
- 15.09.2026 home Millwall 2:2
This season: Bolton Wanderers at home vs Middlesbrough FC away
| Metric | Bolton Wanderers · at home | Middlesbrough FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–3 | 2–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xG for per match | 1.58 | 1.98 |
| xG against per match | 1.39 | 0.89 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 5.25 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
Bolton Wanderers face a difficult test against Middlesbrough FC in the Championship, with the visitors holding the clearer overall advantage. Bolton have shown encouraging recent form, winning three of their last five matches and scoring nine goals while conceding six. However, their home record has been less convincing, with two wins and three defeats in five games. Sitting 15th with 14 points after 11 matches, they will need to turn their attacking output into a more consistent performance against stronger opposition.
Middlesbrough FC arrive in better league position, occupying third place with 22 points from 11 matches. Their recent sequence of two wins and three draws reflects an ability to avoid defeat, while their 10 goals scored across those five games indicate a productive attack. Away from home, they have collected two wins and two draws in five matches, with only one defeat. More importantly, Middlesbrough FC have created clearly more chances than they have allowed on their travels, suggesting a stronger underlying balance than Bolton Wanderers have demonstrated at home.
The visitors therefore have a moderate but clear edge, although Bolton Wanderers have enough recent attacking form to remain competitive. Both sides have shown they can score, and the overall outlook points towards an open contest with opportunities at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
EFL Campaign Support
Bolton Wanderers will support the EFL's 'Together Against Racism' campaign during their Championship home fixture against Middlesbrough at the Toughsheet Community Stadium.
High Match Attendance
Over 25,000 tickets were sold for Bolton Wanderers' Friday night Championship clash against Middlesbrough at the Toughsheet Community Stadium.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.