Birmingham City — Wolverhampton Wanderers: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.9% |
| 12 | 72.2% | |
| X2 | 66.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.1% / 93.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Birmingham City and Wolverhampton Wanderers meet in a Championship fixture that appears finely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. Confidence in the outlook is moderate, so the match may be shaped by small margins rather than a dominant performance from either team.
The scoring profile suggests a medium-scoring game, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains open rather than strongly indicated. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1, reflecting a contest that could stay close while giving Wolverhampton Wanderers a slight edge in the result-focused market signal. Birmingham City should therefore remain competitive, but the visitors may have a marginally better chance of avoiding defeat.
What matters before kick-off
Birmingham City Injury News
Birmingham City manager Chris Davies will be without Lee Buchanan, Marc Leonard and Max Bird due to injury for the fixture against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Wolverhampton Wanderers Injury News
Wolverhampton Wanderers remain without Kieran Trippier, Rafiki Said and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde due to injury for their derby with Birmingham City.
Recent Result for Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolverhampton Wanderers suffered their first defeat of the season in midweek, losing 4-2 to West Ham United prior to their trip to Birmingham City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.