Beitar Jerusalem FC — FK Austria Wien: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.1% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 57.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.7% / 24.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Beitar Jerusalem FC enter this UEFA Conference League qualification tie with a moderate home advantage over FK Austria Wien. The assessment gives the hosts a slight edge, while the overall balance remains competitive rather than one-sided. Home surroundings may support Beitar Jerusalem FC, but FK Austria Wien have enough strength to keep the contest close and make the result difficult to separate with confidence.
A medium-scoring match is the most suitable expectation from the available indicators. Both teams scoring is viewed as an even possibility, so the game could develop through a cautious opening before becoming more open as the tie progresses. The result profile favours Beitar Jerusalem FC avoiding defeat, although a draw remains a realistic outcome. Scores such as 1-1, 2-1, or 1-0 fit the balance of the preview, with the decisive moments likely to come from how efficiently each side converts its limited opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Neutral venue for the first leg
The first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round takes place at the Ilie Oană Stadium in Ploiești, Romania, as Beitar Jerusalem plays its European home fixtures on neutral territory.
FK Austria Wien squad updates
Defender Aleksandar Dragović returns to Austria Wien's squad following a concussion, while forward Johannes Eggestein misses the European fixture due to a minor knock.
Beitar Jerusalem's previous qualification result
Beitar Jerusalem reached the third qualifying round by overcoming Cyprus side AEK Larnaca on penalties in the second qualifying round.
Austria Wien's recent league result
FK Austria Wien enters the fixture following a 0–3 loss against Wolfsberger AC in their Austrian Bundesliga opener on 2 August.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.