AZ Alkmaar — Willem II Tilburg: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.2% |
| 12 | 90.9% | |
| X2 | 13.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.4% / 1.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 39.6% / 60.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.09.2026
AZ Alkmaar
1st place · 15 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Heerenveen 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away For Sittard 2:0
- 15.08.2026 away Utrecht 4:1
- 08.08.2026 home Den Haag 2:0
Willem II Tilburg
17th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Excelsior 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
- 15.08.2026 home Nijmegen 1:4
- 08.08.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 1:4
- 18.05.2025 away NAC Breda 1:1
This season: AZ Alkmaar at home vs Willem II Tilburg away
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar · at home | Willem II Tilburg · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.53 | 1.51 |
| xG against per match | 1.39 | 2.43 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.02.2025 Willem II Tilburg 0:2 AZ Alkmaar
- 10.11.2024 AZ Alkmaar 1:2 Willem II Tilburg
- 20.03.2022 Willem II Tilburg 2:2 AZ Alkmaar
- 18.12.2021 AZ Alkmaar 4:1 Willem II Tilburg
- 03.04.2021 Willem II Tilburg 0:1 AZ Alkmaar
- 20.12.2020 AZ Alkmaar 5:3 Willem II Tilburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar host Willem II Tilburg in an Eredivisie meeting where the available signals point clearly toward the home side. AZ Alkmaar are assessed as clearly stronger, with high confidence behind that view. The attacking outlook is also positive, suggesting a match with several scoring opportunities rather than a cautious, low-event contest.
Willem II Tilburg will need to remain compact and disciplined to limit the hosts’ attacking threat, while AZ Alkmaar should look to control the game and turn their superiority into chances. The assessment favours a home win, although it does not rule out Willem II Tilburg contributing to the scoreline: the expectation of both teams scoring is essentially balanced. Overall, the matchup leans strongly toward AZ Alkmaar, with the main question being how effectively Willem II Tilburg can resist the home side and whether the game develops into an open contest.
What matters before kick-off
AZ's Perfect League Start
AZ Alkmaar have won all five of their opening matches in the 2026-27 Eredivisie season, most recently defeating Heerenveen 3-2 to sit atop the table.
Willem II Squad Absences
Willem II face multiple selection issues with goalkeeper Thomas Didillon-Hödl, Jari Schuurman, Amine Lachkar, Armin Culum and Anass Zarrouk out injured.
Upcoming Europa League Opener for AZ
Following their fixture against Willem II, AZ Alkmaar will turn their focus to Europe as they open their Europa League campaign against Sunderland next week.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.