AZ Alkmaar — Willem II Tilburg: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.2% |
| 12 | 90.9% | |
| X2 | 13.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.4% / 1.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 39.6% / 60.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar host Willem II Tilburg in an Eredivisie meeting where the available signals point clearly toward the home side. AZ Alkmaar are assessed as clearly stronger, with high confidence behind that view. The attacking outlook is also positive, suggesting a match with several scoring opportunities rather than a cautious, low-event contest.
Willem II Tilburg will need to remain compact and disciplined to limit the hosts’ attacking threat, while AZ Alkmaar should look to control the game and turn their superiority into chances. The assessment favours a home win, although it does not rule out Willem II Tilburg contributing to the scoreline: the expectation of both teams scoring is essentially balanced. Overall, the matchup leans strongly toward AZ Alkmaar, with the main question being how effectively Willem II Tilburg can resist the home side and whether the game develops into an open contest.
What matters before kick-off
AZ's Perfect League Start
AZ Alkmaar have won all five of their opening matches in the 2026-27 Eredivisie season, most recently defeating Heerenveen 3-2 to sit atop the table.
Willem II Squad Absences
Willem II face multiple selection issues with goalkeeper Thomas Didillon-Hödl, Jari Schuurman, Amine Lachkar, Armin Culum and Anass Zarrouk out injured.
Upcoming Europa League Opener for AZ
Following their fixture against Willem II, AZ Alkmaar will turn their focus to Europe as they open their Europa League campaign against Sunderland next week.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.