Austin FC — San Diego FC: Win probabilities, 27.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.5% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 64.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.7% / 77.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.45 → now 2.63 |
| W2 | was 2.70 → now 2.40 |
Match preview
Austin FC and San Diego FC meet in MLS on 27 September 2026 in a fixture that appears finely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with moderate confidence in an evenly matched contest. That suggests the result may be difficult to separate, and the overall balance of the game should remain an important factor throughout.
The stronger signal concerns the scoring pattern. This is projected to be a high-scoring match, with both Austin FC and San Diego FC likely to find the net. That points toward an open encounter rather than a cautious, low-event battle, although the balance between the teams means the scoring advantage could shift during the game. The central expectation is therefore a competitive match in which both attacks have opportunities, while the final outcome remains uncertain.
What matters before kick-off
Austin FC Recent Form
Austin FC enter the match on a seven-game unbeaten streak in MLS following a 0-0 away draw against FC Dallas.
San Diego FC Availability
San Diego FC goalkeeper CJ Dos Santos will miss the match due to international duty with Cape Verde.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.