Austin FC — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.7% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 71.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.8% / 36.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Austin FC and Philadelphia Union meet in an MLS contest that appears relatively balanced, with a moderate lean toward the visitors. Philadelphia Union have a slight edge in the overall assessment, while the draw also remains a credible possibility. The X2 signal reflects that Austin FC are not favoured to win outright, but the gap between the sides is not considered decisive.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That points toward an open contest in which neither side is expected to dominate for the full game. Austin FC should have opportunities to threaten, particularly if they can turn possession or transitions into clear chances, while Philadelphia Union carry the stronger result outlook. A draw such as 1:1 fits the balanced nature of the matchup, while a narrow Philadelphia Union win is also consistent with the available assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Kickoff time moved back due to heat
Austin FC's home match against Philadelphia Union was pushed back to 8:00 p.m. CT due to forecasted high temperatures.
Owen Wolff ruled out for Austin FC
Austin FC midfielder Owen Wolff has been ruled out of the match against Philadelphia Union due to an ankle injury.
Austin FC entering off away victory
Austin FC enters the match against Philadelphia Union following a 2-1 away victory against Seattle Sounders FC, with second-half goals from Facundo Torres and Guilherme Biro.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.