Atlanta United FC — New York City FC: Win probabilities, 26.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.6% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 63.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.4% / 16.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.6% / 61.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.1% / 78.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.0% / 90.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.25 → now 2.60 |
| W2 | was 3.00 → now 2.55 |
Match preview
Atlanta United FC and New York City FC look evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts a slight degree of protection, but confidence is moderate rather than strong. That points to a competitive contest in which neither side holds a clearly defined overall advantage, with the balance potentially decided by small tactical or defensive details.
The scoring outlook is more open. Both teams are likely to find the net, suggesting that the match could develop into an entertaining exchange rather than a tightly controlled defensive battle. A draw is a natural possibility in this context, while a narrow result for either side also fits the closely balanced profile. The most consistent expectation is therefore a game with chances at both ends, where Atlanta United FC may have a marginal platform at home but New York City FC remain fully capable of making the contest difficult and contributing to the scoreline.
What matters before kick-off
Atlanta United missing five players due to international duty
Atlanta United enter the match against New York City FC without five First Team players called up for international duty: Miguel Almirón, Alexey Miranchuk, Júnior Alonso, Paulo Díaz, and Fafa Picault.
Atlanta United sign short-term call-ups from second team
To address roster shortages ahead of the New York City FC match, Atlanta United signed defenders Daniel Chica and Matthew Senanou and midfielder Cameron Dunbar to short-term agreements from their second team.
Recent results for both sides
Atlanta United come into the match following a 1-0 road win against Portland Timbers on September 20, while New York City FC lost 1-0 to New York Red Bulls in their derby match on September 18.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.