Alanyaspor — Kocaelispor: Win probabilities, 23.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.8% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.7% / 9.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.6% / 26.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.1% / 74.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.10.2026
Alanyaspor
9th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Fenerbahce 0:3
- 10.10.2026 home Erzurumspor 0:0
- 19.09.2026 away Corum 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Goztep 2:2
- 07.09.2026 away Rizespor 1:0
Kocaelispor
8th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Goztep 1:2
- 11.10.2026 away Besiktas 1:2
- 19.09.2026 home Gaziantep 2:0
- 13.09.2026 away Galatasaray 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Samsunspor 1:0
This season: Alanyaspor at home vs Kocaelispor away
| Metric | Alanyaspor · at home | Kocaelispor · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–0 | 1–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| xG against per match | 1.41 | 1.82 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 18.03.2026 Alanyaspor 5:0 Kocaelispor
- 25.10.2025 Kocaelispor 2:0 Alanyaspor
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.10 → now 3.20 |
| W2 | was 3.80 → now 4.00 |
Match preview
Alanyaspor have a slight edge ahead of their Super Lig meeting with Kocaelispor, although the league standings suggest a closely contested match. Alanyaspor sit ninth with 12 points from eight games, just below Kocaelispor in eighth, who have the same points total. Recent form offers some encouragement for the hosts: they have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches. Kocaelispor, by contrast, have lost three of their last five, with their two victories interrupted by inconsistent results.
The home and away records provide a clearer reason to lean towards Alanyaspor. They remain unbeaten in three home league matches this season, recording one win and two draws while conceding only two goals. Kocaelispor have struggled on the road, losing three of their four away games and conceding six goals. They have also allowed considerably more chances than they create away from home, which could give Alanyaspor opportunities to control important phases of the contest.
A medium-scoring game looks plausible, with neither side clearly dominant enough to rule out a draw. Alanyaspor's home stability gives them the advantage, but their own recent defensive record leaves room for uncertainty. Kocaelispor will need a more disciplined away performance to improve their chances of taking points.
What matters before kick-off
Standings position ahead of the match
Heading into their matchday nine clash in the Süper Lig, both Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor sit level on 12 points in the league table.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.