Ajax Amsterdam — Willem II Tilburg: Win probabilities, 15.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 96.6% |
| 12 | 92.0% | |
| X2 | 11.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.5% / 1.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 81.0% / 19.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 63.4% / 36.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 44.1% / 55.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 27.3% / 72.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.09.2026
Ajax Amsterdam
7th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away For Sittard 5:1
- 05.09.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:3
- 30.08.2026 away Telstar 4:0
- 16.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
- 09.08.2026 away Zwolle 2:0
Willem II Tilburg
17th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 away AZ Alkmaar 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Excelsior 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
- 15.08.2026 home Nijmegen 1:4
- 08.08.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 1:4
This season: Ajax Amsterdam at home vs Willem II Tilburg away
| Metric | Ajax Amsterdam · at home | Willem II Tilburg · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.99 | 1.22 |
| xG against per match | 1.96 | 2.46 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 1.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.04.2025 Willem II Tilburg 1:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 27.10.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 1:0 Willem II Tilburg
- 19.02.2022 Willem II Tilburg 0:1 Ajax Amsterdam
- 02.12.2021 Ajax Amsterdam 5:0 Willem II Tilburg
- 28.01.2021 Ajax Amsterdam 3:1 Willem II Tilburg
- 23.12.2020 Willem II Tilburg 1:1 Ajax Amsterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Ajax Amsterdam come into this Eredivisie fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high level of confidence. The overall scoring outlook is high, suggesting a match in which Ajax Amsterdam should have the greater attacking influence and create the more dangerous opportunities. Willem II Tilburg will need to remain disciplined and compact if they are to limit the home side’s control.
The main outcome signal points towards a home victory, while the projected scorelines consistently favour Ajax Amsterdam by a substantial margin, including 3:0, 4:0 and 2:0. That points to a match shaped by the hosts’ superiority rather than a closely balanced contest. At the same time, the expectation that both teams could score remains evenly poised, so Willem II Tilburg cannot be completely discounted in the attacking phases. The central question is whether the visitors can turn those opportunities into goals while resisting sustained pressure from Ajax Amsterdam.
What matters before kick-off
Squad availability for both clubs
Ajax will be without Daley Blind, Aaron Bouwman and Simon Adingra due to injury. Willem II also face notable absences, including captain Justin Hoogma.
Recent Eredivisie fixtures
Ajax enter the match following a 5-1 away win against Fortuna Sittard. Willem II secured a 1-1 away draw against AZ Alkmaar thanks to a late goal by Devin Haen.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.