Ajax Amsterdam — Shelbourne FC: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 98.7% |
| 12 | 95.4% | |
| X2 | 5.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 25.5% / 74.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.1% / 1.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.2% / 9.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.6% / 64.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Ajax Amsterdam enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side, with high confidence in the home team’s advantage. The available assessment points toward a dominant performance from the hosts, while Shelbourne FC face a demanding task in limiting Ajax Amsterdam’s attacking threat. The overall match profile also suggests a high-scoring contest, although the strongest defensive signal points toward a clean sheet for the home side.
That combination makes a controlled Ajax Amsterdam victory the central expectation rather than a closely balanced encounter. Shelbourne FC may need to remain compact and disciplined, but the gap between the teams is expected to show over the course of the match. Scorelines such as 3-0, 4-0, or 2-0 fit the prevailing outlook, with Ajax Amsterdam favoured to dictate possession and create the clearer opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Path to the third qualifying round
Ajax reached the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round by defeating FK Vojvodina 8-2 on aggregate. Irish side Shelbourne advanced by overcoming Estonian club Nõmme Kalju 6-4 on aggregate.
First competitive meeting
The match on 6 August 2026 marks the first-ever official competitive fixture between Ajax and Shelbourne.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.