Ajax Amsterdam — SC Heerenveen: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.4% |
| 12 | 81.0% | |
| X2 | 32.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.7% / 29.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.4% / 69.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.4% / 83.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Ajax Amsterdam
7th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Zwolle 2:0
- 17.05.2026 away Heerenveen 0:0
- 10.05.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 2:2
- 25.04.2026 away NAC Breda 2:0
SC Heerenveen
10th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Twente 1:0
- 17.05.2026 home Ajax 0:0
- 10.05.2026 away NAC Breda 0:2
- 03.05.2026 away Volendam 2:0
- 25.04.2026 home For Sittard 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 SC Heerenveen 0:0 Ajax Amsterdam
- 01.11.2025 Ajax Amsterdam 1:1 SC Heerenveen
- 19.01.2025 SC Heerenveen 0:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 11.08.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 1:0 SC Heerenveen
- 11.02.2024 SC Heerenveen 3:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 05.11.2023 Ajax Amsterdam 4:1 SC Heerenveen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Ajax Amsterdam enter this Eredivisie meeting with the clearer overall profile, while SC Heerenveen appear capable of making the contest competitive. The assessment gives Ajax Amsterdam a moderate edge rather than an overwhelming one, so the home side’s advantage should be viewed in the context of a potentially open match.
The available scoring outlook points toward a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. The most prominent projected scorelines are 2:1 and 2:0, while 1:1 also reflects the possibility that SC Heerenveen can stay level for long periods. Ajax Amsterdam should therefore be considered the stronger side on the available signal, but SC Heerenveen’s attacking contribution could keep the outcome uncertain until late in the match.
What matters before kick-off
Eredivisie Matchweek 2 fixture
Ajax face SC Heerenveen on August 16, 2026, at the Johan Cruyff Arena in Matchweek 2 of the Eredivisie season.
Heerenveen's winning start to the season
SC Heerenveen opened their Eredivisie campaign with a 1–0 home win over FC Twente.
Ajax's successful league opening
Ajax started their domestic league season with a 2–0 victory away to PEC Zwolle.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.