AC Omonia Nicosia — SL Benfica: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

AC Omonia Nicosia face a demanding test against SL Benfica in the UEFA Europa League, with the visitors holding the clearer overall advantage. Both sides have shown strong recent form, but SL Benfica have been more consistent and considerably tighter defensively. They have won four of their last five matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 4, while AC Omonia Nicosia have recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat over the same span. This contrast in defensive reliability is an important factor in assessing the balance between the teams.

AC Omonia Nicosia have demonstrated attacking capability, finding the net 11 times in their last five matches, but their eight goals conceded suggest there may be opportunities for SL Benfica to exploit. The visitors' combination of greater recent success and a stronger defensive record gives them a meaningful edge, although the moderate level of confidence leaves room for a competitive contest. SL Benfica should be well placed to control key phases and create scoring opportunities, while the hosts will need to make effective use of their attacking moments to stay involved.

The overall outlook points towards an away win in a potentially high-scoring match. Both teams scoring remains uncertain, as AC Omonia Nicosia have enough recent attacking output to pose a threat, but SL Benfica's defensive numbers provide a credible basis for expecting them to manage the contest effectively.