West Ham United — Queens Park Rangers: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.5% |
| 12 | 81.4% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.6% / 56.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.1% / 74.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
West Ham United
2nd place · 15 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Millwall 2:2
- 11.09.2026 home Wrexham 6:0
- 08.09.2026 away Bolton 3:2
- 05.09.2026 home Derby 3:0
- 01.09.2026 home Wolves 4:2
Queens Park Rangers
7th place · 13 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Preston 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away West Brom 1:1
- 09.09.2026 away Charlton 0:0
- 05.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 0:1
- 02.09.2026 home Cardiff 2:1
This season: West Ham United at home vs Queens Park Rangers away
| Metric | West Ham United · at home | Queens Park Rangers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–1 | 2–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| xG for per match | 2.92 | 1.29 |
| xG against per match | 0.53 | 1.20 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.75 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
West Ham United welcome Queens Park Rangers to a Championship fixture where recent form points firmly in the hosts' direction. West Ham United sit second in the table after eight matches, having gone unbeaten across their last five with four wins and a single draw. In that stretch they have scored eighteen goals, a figure that underlines why their attacking rhythm is drawing attention. At home this season they have taken three wins from four, with fourteen goals scored and only four conceded, and the chance quality numbers suggest they consistently create more than they allow.
Queens Park Rangers arrive in seventh, two points behind their opponents over the same number of games, and remain unbeaten on the road with two wins and two draws from four away trips. Their recent sequence, however, has leaned heavily on draws, with three stalemates in the last five fixtures and goals shared evenly at both ends. Away from home, chances created and allowed have been roughly level.
The weight of evidence favours the hosts clearly, though with moderate rather than overwhelming confidence given QPR's resilience on their travels. A tight but open contest looks plausible, with West Ham United the likelier side to edge it.
What matters before kick-off
League standings
West Ham United enter the match in second place in the Championship after eight rounds, while Queens Park Rangers sit sixth in the table.
West Ham team news
West Ham United midfielder Mohamadou Kante is suspended following a red card against Millwall, while goalkeeper Alphonse Areola is sidelined.
Commemoration of Ludek Miklosko
The derby at London Stadium serves as a tribute to former goalkeeper Ludek Miklosko, who made 373 appearances for West Ham United and also spent three years as a player at Queens Park Rangers.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.