Bolton Wanderers — Stoke City: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.2% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 65.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.6% / 69.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Bolton Wanderers
15th place · 10 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Norwich 4:3
- 12.09.2026 home Cardiff 1:0
- 08.09.2026 home West Ham 2:3
- 05.09.2026 away Millwall 0:4
- 01.09.2026 away Sheffield United 2:3
Stoke City
8th place · 13 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Sheffield United 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Watford 2:1
- 08.09.2026 away Cardiff 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Charlton 4:0
- 01.09.2026 home Norwich 1:0
This season: Bolton Wanderers at home vs Stoke City away
| Metric | Bolton Wanderers · at home | Stoke City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–2 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.19 | 1.11 |
| xG against per match | 1.55 | 2.24 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.75 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 6.25 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bolton Wanderers host Stoke City in the Championship with the two sides arriving in contrasting form. The hosts sit 15th of 24 after eight matches, with their last five returning two wins and three defeats, and a goals column that reads nine scored against thirteen conceded. At home the picture is more balanced: four played, two won, two lost, with five goals for and five against, and the quality of chances created and allowed is roughly level. Stoke City come in eighth on 13 points, unbeaten across their last five with four wins and a draw, scoring ten and conceding only three in that span.
The caveat for the visitors is that their travels have been noticeably less convincing. In four away fixtures they have taken a single win and a draw, shipping nine goals while scoring five, and they tend to allow clearly more chances than they generate on the road. That gap between overall form and away output narrows the picture considerably at the Toughsheet.
Taken together, the teams look evenly matched with a slight lean toward Stoke City's broader momentum. A medium-scoring, tightly contested afternoon fits the profile, with likely scorelines around 1:1, 0:1 or 1:2.
What matters before kick-off
Large away support expected
More than 4,600 Stoke City supporters are set to travel to support their team in the Championship clash against Bolton Wanderers.
Strong home crowd expected at Bolton
Bolton Wanderers confirmed that over 25,000 tickets were sold for their home Championship match against Stoke City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.