Preston North End — Millwall FC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.0% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 69.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.8% / 18.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.6% / 64.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.7% / 81.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Preston North End
23rd place · 4 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away QPR 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home Lincoln 0:1
- 08.09.2026 away Watford 1:2
- 05.09.2026 home Blackburn 2:1
- 01.09.2026 home Bristol City 1:3
Millwall FC
12th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home West Ham 2:2
- 15.09.2026 away Middlesbrough 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away Blackburn 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Bolton 4:0
- 02.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:3
This season: Preston North End at home vs Millwall FC away
| Metric | Preston North End · at home | Millwall FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–3 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.34 | 1.96 |
| xG against per match | 1.29 | 1.62 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.25 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.02.2026 Preston North End 0:2 Millwall FC
- 08.11.2025 Millwall FC 1:1 Preston North End
- 18.02.2025 Preston North End 1:1 Millwall FC
- 28.09.2024 Millwall FC 3:1 Preston North End
- 27.01.2024 Millwall FC 1:1 Preston North End
- 21.10.2023 Preston North End 1:1 Millwall FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Preston North End host Millwall FC in a Championship fixture where the table alone sets the mood. The hosts sit 23rd of 24 with just four points from eight games, and their home record reads one win and three defeats in four, with eight goals conceded on their own ground. Millwall FC arrive in a steadier position, twelfth with eleven points, though their away travels show a modest return of one win in four and a leaky defence that has shipped ten on the road.
The history between these sides tilts further towards the visitors. In six meetings Preston North End have no wins, with four draws and two Millwall FC victories, and the most recent encounter ended 0-2 to the away side earlier this year. Both recent form lines are mixed rather than emphatic — a win apiece in their last five, with Millwall FC adding two draws — so there is no sense of either team arriving with real momentum.
Taken together, this points to a cautious contest with a slight edge for the visitors. Chances created and allowed are roughly level on both sides, and the head-to-head pattern suggests the draw remains a live option, with goals at either end a plausible feature rather than a flood.
What matters before kick-off
Graham Alexander's return to Deepdale
The fixture against Millwall on 10 October 2026 marks Graham Alexander's first home match in charge as Preston North End manager at Deepdale.
Discounted ticket campaign for supporters
Preston North End introduced heavily reduced ticket prices starting from £5 for juniors and £15 for adults to celebrate their new manager's first home game against Millwall.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.