Middlesbrough FC — Wolverhampton Wanderers: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.6% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.9% / 38.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.6% / 60.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Middlesbrough FC
3rd place · 15 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Birmingham 2:2
- 15.09.2026 home Millwall 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home Norwich 4:3
- 05.09.2026 away QPR 1:0
- 02.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
5th place · 14 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home West Brom 1:0
- 13.09.2026 away Sheffield United 1:0
- 06.09.2026 away Birmingham 2:2
- 01.09.2026 away West Ham 2:4
- 29.08.2026 home Stoke 4:1
This season: Middlesbrough FC at home vs Wolverhampton Wanderers away
| Metric | Middlesbrough FC · at home | Wolverhampton Wanderers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–0 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.75 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 2.07 | 1.70 |
| xG against per match | 1.32 | 1.18 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 7.25 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Middlesbrough FC head into this Championship fixture sitting third in the table with 15 points from 8 matches, and they arrive unbeaten across their last five outings, taking 2 wins and 3 draws while scoring 10 goals. Their home record underlines the picture: 3 wins and 1 draw from 4 matches at their own ground, with 11 goals scored. On chance quality, the hosts are creating clearly more opportunities than they concede in front of their own supporters, which gives them a reasonable platform heading into kickoff.
Wolverhampton Wanderers travel across in strong form of their own, fifth in the standings on 14 points from 7 played, with 3 wins in their last five. On the road they have 2 wins and a draw from 4 attempts, and like their hosts they have been creating clearly more chances than they allow in away fixtures. The underlying numbers suggest two sides pulling in similar directions.
Taken together, the picture is of two evenly matched teams, with a moderate lean towards the hosts given their unbeaten home record and higher league position. Both attacks have been productive and both defences have conceded regularly, so an open, competitive contest looks the most grounded reading.
What matters before kick-off
Wolves and Middlesbrough team news
Wolves head coach Cesar Peixoto confirmed that Fer Lopez and Jordan James returned from international duty with minor injuries and will be assessed before the match. Middlesbrough will be without central defender Alfie Jones due to injury.
150th anniversary celebration fixture
The Championship match between Middlesbrough and Wolverhampton Wanderers serves as a designated celebration fixture marking the 150th anniversary of both clubs.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.