Watford FC — Burnley FC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.8% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.5% / 18.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.0% / 65.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.3% / 91.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Watford FC
20th place · 8 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Bristol City 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Stoke 1:2
- 08.09.2026 home Preston 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away West Brom 0:1
- 01.09.2026 away Swansea 0:2
Burnley FC
24th place · 4 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Derby 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Swansea 1:3
- 08.09.2026 away Wrexham 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Bristol City 1:2
- 02.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 1:1
This season: Watford FC at home vs Burnley FC away
| Metric | Watford FC · at home | Burnley FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 0–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 2.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.02 | 1.34 |
| xG against per match | 1.64 | 1.88 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.75 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.04.2025 Watford FC 1:2 Burnley FC
- 21.12.2024 Burnley FC 2:1 Watford FC
- 14.02.2023 Burnley FC 1:1 Watford FC
- 12.08.2022 Watford FC 1:0 Burnley FC
- 30.04.2022 Watford FC 1:2 Burnley FC
- 05.02.2022 Burnley FC 0:0 Watford FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Watford FC host Burnley FC in a Championship fixture between two sides struggling in the lower reaches of the table. The hosts sit 20th with eight points from eight matches and arrive on a difficult run of one win and four defeats in their last five outings, though their home form has been noticeably sturdier: two wins, one draw and one loss from four matches at their own ground. Burnley FC, meanwhile, prop up the table in 24th with just four points, winless on the road with three defeats in four away trips and eleven goals conceded in those games.
The head-to-head record tilts towards the visitors, who have won three of the last six meetings against one for the hosts, and the most recent encounter finished Watford FC 1-2 Burnley FC in 2025. That history, combined with Burnley FC's steadier recent pattern of three draws in their last five, lends weight to a cautious reading of the match.
Overall the teams look evenly matched, with a slight lean towards the away side based on past meetings. Both defences have conceded freely in their respective home and away samples, so a medium-scoring contest in which both teams find the net remains a plausible shape for the afternoon.
What matters before kick-off
Watford receive fitness boost ahead of Burnley clash
Six Watford players, including Soumaïla Coulibaly, Jordan Zemura, Martín Payero, Omar Traoré, Marc Bola, and Travis Akomeah, returned to full main first-team training after injury. Only Edoardo Bove, Jeremy Ngakia, and Kwadwo Baah remain unavailable.
Burnley enter winless across opening eight league matches
Burnley head into matchday nine of the Championship winless in their first eight league games, recording four draws and four defeats. Prior to the international break, they drew 1-1 with Derby County.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.