Derby County — Wrexham AFC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.8% |
| 12 | 70.6% | |
| X2 | 69.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.9% / 25.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Derby County
22nd place · 5 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Birmingham 1:2
- 09.09.2026 home West Brom 0:1
- 05.09.2026 away West Ham 0:3
- 01.09.2026 away Portsmouth 2:0
Wrexham AFC
14th place · 10 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Southampton 2:1
- 11.09.2026 away West Ham 0:6
- 08.09.2026 home Burnley 1:1
- 05.09.2026 away Swansea 0:0
- 02.09.2026 away Millwall 3:0
This season: Derby County at home vs Wrexham AFC away
| Metric | Derby County · at home | Wrexham AFC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.18 | 0.89 |
| xG against per match | 2.13 | 1.21 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Corners per match | 8.25 | 4.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 04.01.2026 Derby County 1:2 Wrexham AFC
- 27.09.2025 Wrexham AFC 1:1 Derby County
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Derby County host Wrexham AFC in the Championship with the table pointing clearly in the visitors' direction. The hosts sit 22nd of 24, with 5 points from 8 games, while Wrexham AFC occupy 14th on 10 points from the same number of fixtures. Form adds to that picture: Derby County arrive on a run of D L L L W, with only one win in their last five, whereas Wrexham AFC have taken two wins and two draws from their recent five.
The home record is the most striking detail. Derby County have yet to win at home this season, collecting a single draw and three defeats from four, with 3 goals scored against 8 conceded. Wrexham AFC's road return is more balanced, one win, two draws and one loss, and the only previous meeting between these sides ended Derby County 1-2 Wrexham AFC.
Taken together, these numbers suggest a slight edge for the visitors rather than a one-sided afternoon. Wrexham AFC are the steadier side on current evidence, but their away profile is far from dominant, and Derby County remain capable of taking something at home. A tight, medium-scoring contest, with the draw also well within range, looks the natural reading.
What matters before kick-off
Busy schedule ahead for Derby County
Derby County return from the international break against Wrexham, kicking off a demanding schedule of seven matches in 28 days.
Derby County depth tested at left-back
Derby County face depth issues at left-back, with Charlie Taylor suffering a hamstring injury to join Craig Forsyth and Derry Murkin on the sidelines.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.