Swansea City — Norwich City: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.2% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 59.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.9% / 23.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.0% / 70.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Swansea City
1st place · 17 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Lincoln 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Burnley 3:1
- 08.09.2026 away Southampton 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:0
- 01.09.2026 home Watford 2:0
Norwich City
17th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Bolton 3:4
- 12.09.2026 away Middlesbrough 3:4
- 09.09.2026 home Birmingham 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Sheffield United 3:1
- 01.09.2026 away Stoke 0:1
This season: Swansea City at home vs Norwich City away
| Metric | Swansea City · at home | Norwich City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–0 | 1–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.67 | 1.72 |
| xG against per match | 1.18 | 1.44 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 5.25 |
| Corners per match | 4.75 | 4.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.04.2026 Norwich City 1:1 Swansea City
- 25.10.2025 Swansea City 2:1 Norwich City
- 25.01.2025 Norwich City 5:1 Swansea City
- 14.09.2024 Swansea City 1:0 Norwich City
- 27.04.2024 Norwich City 2:2 Swansea City
- 04.10.2023 Swansea City 2:1 Norwich City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Swansea City host Norwich City in a Championship fixture where the gap in current form is hard to ignore, even if the broader picture suggests a tighter contest. The hosts arrive at the top of the table, sitting first of 24 teams with 17 points from 8 matches, and their home record reads unbeaten in four: two wins, two draws, and just one goal conceded on their own ground. Three wins from their last five, allied to a profile of creating clearly more chances than they allow at home, points to a side comfortable in its rhythm.
Norwich City travel in a very different mood. They sit 17th on 9 points, with three defeats in their last five and an away return of one win in four, having shipped nine goals on the road. That said, the head-to-head offers them something to lean on: six meetings have produced three Swansea City wins, two draws and one Norwich City victory, with the last encounter finishing 1-1 and both teams scoring in five of those six fixtures.
Taken together, the hosts hold a slight edge on current standing and home solidity, while the recent meeting and both sides' scoring habits hint at a medium-scoring game with goals at either end.
What matters before kick-off
League standings ahead of matchday 9
Vítor Matos's Swansea City enter the fixture top of the Championship with 17 points from eight games. Norwich City sit 17th in the standings with nine points.
Team news and fitness updates
Norwich City striker Mohamed Touré is sidelined with a shoulder injury ahead of the match. Swansea City midfielder Stephen Eustáquio is also a doubt after picking up a shoulder issue.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.