West Bromwich Albion — Birmingham City: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.4% |
| 12 | 71.3% | |
| X2 | 61.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.6% / 8.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.2% / 94.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
West Bromwich Albion
6th place · 14 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Wolves 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home QPR 1:1
- 09.09.2026 away Derby 1:0
- 05.09.2026 home Watford 1:0
- 02.09.2026 home Charlton 1:1
Birmingham City
11th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away Derby 2:1
- 09.09.2026 away Norwich 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Wolves 2:2
- 01.09.2026 home Southampton 1:1
This season: West Bromwich Albion at home vs Birmingham City away
| Metric | West Bromwich Albion · at home | Birmingham City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–0 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.14 | 1.80 |
| xG against per match | 0.87 | 0.96 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.75 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 6.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.02.2026 Birmingham City 0:0 West Bromwich Albion
- 26.11.2025 West Bromwich Albion 1:1 Birmingham City
- 03.02.2024 West Bromwich Albion 1:0 Birmingham City
- 06.10.2023 Birmingham City 3:1 West Bromwich Albion
- 10.02.2023 Birmingham City 2:0 West Bromwich Albion
- 14.09.2022 West Bromwich Albion 2:3 Birmingham City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
West Bromwich Albion arrive at this Championship meeting in sixth place with 14 points from eight matches, and their home record this season reads unbeaten in four, with two wins and two draws. The recent five-match sequence of L D W W D shows a side that is hard to beat without being dominant, and the chances created and allowed on their own ground are described as roughly level. That profile suggests a cautious, controlled afternoon rather than an open one.
Birmingham City sit eleventh on 11 points, but their away work has been competitive: two wins in four on the road and a track record of creating clearly more chances than they allow. Their last five results are D W L D D, with eight scored and eight conceded, pointing to a team that stays in matches without pulling clear of opponents. The head-to-head reinforces the picture: six meetings have produced one West Bromwich Albion win, three for Birmingham City and two draws, with the last encounter finishing 0-0.
With solid home form on one side and travel resilience on the other, the teams look evenly matched, and a tight, medium-scoring contest is the most natural reading of the evidence.
What matters before kick-off
Team news for both sides
Birmingham City midfielder Paik Seung-ho is set to miss a few games with a knock, though Max Bird, Taylor Gardner-Hickman, and Demarai Gray are back in contention. West Brom remain without right-back Nolan Galves due to a long-term knee injury, while Mikey Johnston is also ruled out.
West Brom's unbeaten home streak
West Bromwich Albion are 11 games unbeaten on home soil in all competitions, recording four wins and seven draws since their last defeat at The Hawthorns in February 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.