Vitoria SC Guimaraes — FC Arouca: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.2% |
| 12 | 72.9% | |
| X2 | 49.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.3% / 24.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Nacional 0:2
- 11.05.2026 home Casa Pia 0:1
- 04.05.2026 away Sp Lisbon 1:5
- 25.04.2026 home Rio Ave 2:0
- 18.04.2026 away Gil Vicente 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Tondela 3:1
- 11.05.2026 away Gil Vicente 3:1
- 02.05.2026 home Santa Clara 2:2
- 24.04.2026 away Alverca 1:2
- 19.04.2026 home Estrela 1:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.02.2026 FC Arouca 3:2 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 30.08.2025 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 1:1 FC Arouca
- 18.01.2025 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 2:2 FC Arouca
- 12.08.2024 FC Arouca 0:1 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 18.05.2024 FC Arouca 1:3 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 15.01.2024 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 2:1 FC Arouca
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Vitoria SC Guimaraes hold a slight but credible edge over FC Arouca in this Liga Portugal fixture. The assessment points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with the hosts having the stronger overall outlook. The projected scorelines reflect that narrow margin, ranging from a level 1:1 draw to home wins by 1:0 or 2:1.
The game is expected to produce a medium level of scoring, although the likelihood of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. That makes the match difficult to frame as either especially open or purely cautious. Vitoria SC Guimaraes should be favoured to avoid defeat, while FC Arouca remain capable of keeping the contest close and potentially taking advantage if the hosts fail to turn their edge into sustained pressure.
What matters before kick-off
Liga Portugal season opener
The 2026/27 Liga Portugal matchday one fixture between Vitória SC and FC Arouca takes place at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Guimarães.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.