Vitoria SC Guimaraes — FC Arouca: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.4% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Vitoria SC Guimaraes have a slight but credible edge over FC Arouca in this Liga Portugal fixture. The overall outlook points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with the hosts better placed to control the game and make use of home advantage. FC Arouca should still have enough to remain involved, particularly if they can keep the tempo balanced and avoid allowing Vitoria SC Guimaraes to establish sustained pressure.
The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a match with several meaningful chances but not necessarily an open exchange from the start. Whether both teams score appears finely balanced, so the defensive performance of each side could be decisive. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, reflecting a narrow margin between the teams. Overall, the result leans toward Vitoria SC Guimaraes avoiding defeat, while FC Arouca remain capable of making the contest close.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.