Estoril Praia — FC Famalicao: Win probabilities, 07.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.1% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 71.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.0% / 23.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Estoril Praia host FC Famalicao in a Liga Portugal match that looks finely balanced, although the visitors hold a slight edge. The available assessment points towards a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch, with Famalicao marginally better placed in the overall outcome view. Estoril Praia will have home advantage, but the gap between the sides is not considered decisive.
A medium-scoring game is the most consistent expectation. The possibility of both teams finding the net remains evenly poised, so neither a clean-sheet scenario nor an open exchange stands out strongly. The projected scorelines point to a narrow Famalicao victory or a draw, making the visitors’ protection against defeat the more cautious reading. Estoril Praia should remain involved in the contest, while FC Famalicao appear slightly more likely to take the result if the match is decided by a small margin.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.