Estoril Praia — FC Famalicao: Win probabilities, 07.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.0% |
| 12 | 71.8% | |
| X2 | 65.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.1% / 26.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Benfica 1:3
- 10.05.2026 away Alverca 1:1
- 03.05.2026 away Sp Braga 1:1
- 26.04.2026 home Famalicao 0:1
- 20.04.2026 away Moreirense 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Alverca 1:0
- 11.05.2026 away Estrela 0:0
- 02.05.2026 home Benfica 2:2
- 26.04.2026 away Estoril 1:0
- 19.04.2026 away Sp Braga 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.04.2026 Estoril Praia 0:1 FC Famalicao
- 14.12.2025 FC Famalicao 4:0 Estoril Praia
- 12.04.2025 FC Famalicao 3:0 Estoril Praia
- 01.12.2024 Estoril Praia 2:1 FC Famalicao
- 28.04.2024 Estoril Praia 1:0 FC Famalicao
- 17.12.2023 FC Famalicao 1:1 Estoril Praia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estoril Praia and FC Famalicao meet in Liga Portugal in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. The expected profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a match with opportunities at both ends without pointing to an especially open or one-sided encounter.
A draw is a credible possibility, while the outcome assessment also gives FC Famalicao some support in the broader result range. The most plausible scorelines reflect the balance of the fixture: 1:1, 0:1, and 1:0. Both teams scoring is viewed as an uncertain possibility rather than a strong tendency, so the match may be decided by small differences in efficiency or defensive concentration. Estoril Praia should aim to use home advantage carefully, while FC Famalicao can approach the game with confidence that a narrow result is within reach.
What matters before kick-off
New managerial eras begin for both clubs
Estoril Praia appointed Vasco Matos as head coach on July 8, 2026, while FC Famalicão appointed Carlos Carvalhal four days later.
Liga Portugal season opener
Estoril Praia kick off the 2026–27 Liga Portugal season on August 7, 2026, hosting FC Famalicão at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.