Moreirense FC — SC Braga: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.4% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 84.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.3% / 24.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.1% / 71.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home AVS 0:0
- 11.05.2026 away Tondela 0:2
- 02.05.2026 home Estrela 3:2
- 25.04.2026 away Benfica 1:4
- 20.04.2026 home Estoril 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Estrela 2:2
- 11.05.2026 away Benfica 2:2
- 03.05.2026 home Estoril 1:1
- 26.04.2026 away Santa Clara 1:2
- 23.04.2026 away Casa Pia 1:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 Moreirense FC 0:1 SC Braga
- 09.11.2025 SC Braga 2:1 Moreirense FC
- 03.02.2025 Moreirense FC 1:2 SC Braga
- 25.08.2024 SC Braga 3:1 Moreirense FC
- 04.02.2024 SC Braga 1:0 Moreirense FC
- 09.09.2023 Moreirense FC 2:3 SC Braga
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Moreirense FC face SC Braga in a Liga Portugal fixture where the visitors appear clearly stronger on the available indications. The assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, so SC Braga’s advantage should be viewed as meaningful rather than decisive. Moreirense FC will have home advantage, but the overall balance favours the away side.
The match is expected to fall into a medium-scoring range, with plausible outcomes including a narrow SC Braga win or a more open away victory. At the same time, both teams scoring remains difficult to call, leaving room for a closely contested game if Moreirense FC can limit the visitors’ attacking influence. The central expectation is therefore a controlled SC Braga performance, with a slight possibility that the hosts can make the contest level.
What matters before kick-off
SC Braga enter match following European qualifiers
Prior to the league opener, SC Braga played three official matches in UEFA Conference League qualifying, securing wins against Zeleznicar Pancevo and Dinamo Minsk.
SC Braga's head-to-head streak
SC Braga have won each of their last 13 official head-to-head meetings against Moreirense.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.