Moreirense FC — SC Braga: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 40.5% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 83.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.3% / 26.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Moreirense FC host SC Braga in a Liga Portugal meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the low confidence level points to a relatively open assessment rather than a decisive gap. Braga appear better placed in the outcome signal, but Moreirense FC remain capable of keeping the contest close on their own ground.
The match is projected to produce a medium-scoring game, with both teams scoring viewed as an even possibility. That combination suggests a balance between Braga’s marginal advantage and the potential for Moreirense FC to contribute to the match. A narrow Braga win and a draw are both consistent with the overall picture, so the result may depend on which side manages the key moments more effectively.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.