SL Benfica — Academico de Viseu FC: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 97.2% |
| 12 | 93.2% | |
| X2 | 9.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 31.9% / 68.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.7% / 2.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.9% / 30.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SL Benfica go into this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side, with high confidence in the home outcome. Academico de Viseu FC face a demanding task against opponents whose overall strength gives them a substantial advantage. The available assessment points towards a match in which SL Benfica should control the initiative and spend long periods in the attacking half.
The scoring outlook is high, although the same assessment also indicates that a clean sheet for SL Benfica is likely. That combination suggests pressure at one end without necessarily requiring a response from Academico de Viseu FC. The most consistent scoreline indications favour a comfortable home victory, with several possible outcomes built around a winning margin of two or more goals. Academico de Viseu FC will need to remain compact and disciplined, while SL Benfica can be expected to focus on converting their superiority into a decisive result.
What matters before kick-off
Match behind closed doors
The Matchday 1 Liga Portugal fixture between SL Benfica and Academico de Viseu at Estádio da Luz will take place behind closed doors.
Academico de Viseu top-flight return
Academico de Viseu returned to Portugal's top division for the first time since the 1988/89 season, with their last away league encounter against SL Benfica dating back to September 1988.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.