SL Benfica — Academico de Viseu FC: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 98.1% |
| 12 | 94.1% | |
| X2 | 7.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.6% / 13.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.3% / 71.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SL Benfica enter this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side, with Academico de Viseu FC facing a demanding assignment away from home. The available assessment gives Benfica a high level of confidence to control the match, suggesting that the hosts should dictate possession, territory and the overall tempo. Academico de Viseu FC will need to remain disciplined and compact if they are to limit the pressure from Benfica’s attack.
The scoring outlook points toward an open and productive game, but the stronger signal is that Benfica may be able to keep a clean sheet. That combination makes a home victory with several goals the most coherent reading of the available data. Scorelines such as 3-0, 2-0 or 4-0 reflect the expected balance: Benfica should create the clearer chances, while Academico de Viseu FC may struggle to generate enough attacking threat. The match is scheduled for 9 August 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.