Santa Clara Azores — Nacional da Madeira: Win probabilities, 10.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.3% |
| 12 | 69.5% | |
| X2 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.1% / 55.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.2% / 32.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.7% / 97.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Porto 0:1
- 11.05.2026 home Nacional 2:0
- 02.05.2026 away Arouca 2:2
- 26.04.2026 home Sp Braga 2:1
- 18.04.2026 away Casa Pia 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Guimaraes 2:0
- 11.05.2026 away Santa Clara 0:2
- 02.05.2026 home AVS 1:2
- 25.04.2026 away Tondela 2:0
- 18.04.2026 home Alverca 1:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.05.2026 Santa Clara Azores 2:0 Nacional da Madeira
- 11.01.2026 Nacional da Madeira 3:3 Santa Clara Azores
- 30.03.2025 Santa Clara Azores 1:0 Nacional da Madeira
- 04.11.2024 Nacional da Madeira 2:0 Santa Clara Azores
- 11.04.2021 Santa Clara Azores 5:1 Nacional da Madeira
- 06.12.2020 Nacional da Madeira 1:3 Santa Clara Azores
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Santa Clara Azores meet Nacional da Madeira in Liga Portugal on 10 August 2026, with the hosts holding a clear but narrow edge. The assessment points towards a match where Santa Clara Azores are more likely to avoid defeat, while Nacional da Madeira remain capable of making the contest competitive. The balance therefore favours the home side, but not by enough to suggest a one-sided encounter.
A low-scoring game is expected, with limited room for either team to establish a decisive attacking advantage. The leading scorelines are 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0, which reflects a close contest and a relatively cautious scoring outlook. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so the central expectation is for a disciplined match decided by small margins. Santa Clara Azores have the stronger overall position, but a draw remains a credible outcome for Nacional da Madeira.
What matters before kick-off
Primeira Liga opening round fixture
Santa Clara and Nacional da Madeira face off at Estádio de São Miguel in the closing fixture of the opening round of the 2026–27 Primeira Liga season.
Previous season standings
In the 2025–26 Portuguese top-flight campaign, Santa Clara finished 13th in the league table, while Nacional placed 14th.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.