Estrela Amadora — Sporting CP: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 22.9% |
| 12 | 84.4% | |
| X2 | 92.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.1% / 54.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.0% / 17.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.1% / 60.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Sp Braga 2:2
- 11.05.2026 home Famalicao 0:0
- 02.05.2026 away Moreirense 2:3
- 26.04.2026 home Porto 1:2
- 19.04.2026 away Arouca 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:0
- 11.05.2026 away Rio Ave 4:1
- 04.05.2026 home Guimaraes 5:1
- 29.04.2026 home Tondela 2:2
- 26.04.2026 away AVS 1:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 Estrela Amadora 0:1 Sporting CP
- 30.11.2025 Sporting CP 4:0 Estrela Amadora
- 29.03.2025 Estrela Amadora 0:3 Sporting CP
- 01.11.2024 Sporting CP 5:1 Estrela Amadora
- 29.03.2024 Estrela Amadora 1:2 Sporting CP
- 05.11.2023 Sporting CP 3:2 Estrela Amadora
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estrela Amadora face a difficult Liga Portugal meeting with Sporting CP, who enter the match as the clearly stronger side. The qualitative assessment gives Sporting CP a high level of confidence, suggesting that the visitors should control more of the game and create the clearer attacking opportunities. Estrela Amadora will need an organised defensive performance and effective transitions to remain competitive.
The scoring outlook points towards a medium-scoring match rather than an open goal fest. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, so Estrela Amadora have a plausible route to the scoresheet, but the overall balance still favours Sporting CP. The most likely scorelines are 0-2, 0-1 and 0-3, reflecting expectations of an away victory with Sporting CP potentially keeping control of the result.
What matters before kick-off
Season opener in Liga Portugal
The fixture at Estádio José Gomes serves as the opening matchday of the 2026/27 Liga Portugal season for both Estrela Amadora and Sporting CP.
Squad availability for the match
Sporting CP enter the match without injured trio Zeno Debast, João Simões, and Fotis Ioannidis. Estrela Amadora defender Stefan Lekovic is unavailable due to suspension.
Head-to-head record
Sporting CP have won all of their recent head-to-head encounters against Estrela Amadora in Liga Portugal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.