Estrela Amadora — Sporting CP: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 21.8% |
| 12 | 85.4% | |
| X2 | 92.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Estrela Amadora face a difficult Liga Portugal test against Sporting CP, with the overall assessment giving the visitors a clear advantage. Sporting CP are rated as the stronger side, and the high confidence behind that view points to a match in which Estrela Amadora may spend long periods defending without the ball. Their main task will be to remain compact and limit the spaces available around the penalty area.
The outlook also suggests an open game with several scoring opportunities rather than a cautious contest. Sporting CP have the greater attacking expectation, while Estrela Amadora still have a reasonable chance of contributing to the scoreline, making both teams scoring an uncertain possibility. The most consistent reading is therefore an away win, with Sporting CP favoured to control the key phases and create the clearer chances. Estrela Amadora will need an efficient defensive display and disciplined transitions to keep the match competitive.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.