Gil Vicente Barcelos — Rio Ave FC: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.6% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 52.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.9% / 48.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.0% / 26.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Sp Lisbon 0:3
- 11.05.2026 home Arouca 1:3
- 03.05.2026 away Rio Ave 0:0
- 27.04.2026 home Casa Pia 2:1
- 18.04.2026 home Guimaraes 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Casa Pia 1:1
- 11.05.2026 home Sp Lisbon 1:4
- 03.05.2026 home Gil Vicente 0:0
- 25.04.2026 away Guimaraes 0:2
- 17.04.2026 home AVS 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 Rio Ave FC 0:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 20.12.2025 Gil Vicente Barcelos 2:2 Rio Ave FC
- 16.05.2025 Rio Ave FC 1:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 06.01.2025 Gil Vicente Barcelos 1:1 Rio Ave FC
- 06.04.2024 Rio Ave FC 3:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 12.11.2023 Gil Vicente Barcelos 1:1 Rio Ave FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gil Vicente Barcelos host Rio Ave FC in a Liga Portugal meeting that points to a closely contested but moderately open game. The available assessment gives Gil Vicente Barcelos a slight edge, with high confidence in the overall home-oriented signal. That advantage suggests the hosts may be better placed to control key phases, although the balance is not wide enough to dismiss Rio Ave FC’s prospects of taking something from the match.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring, with enough attacking potential for chances at both ends without indicating an especially high-scoring contest. The outlook for both teams finding the net is finely balanced, so that aspect remains difficult to separate. Overall, the most measured reading is a home advantage with draw protection: Gil Vicente Barcelos appear marginally stronger, while Rio Ave FC remain capable of keeping the match level or turning it into a competitive away performance.
What matters before kick-off
New manager for Gil Vicente
Luís Pinto makes his official Liga Portugal debut as Gil Vicente manager following his appointment in the summer of 2026.
Recent H2H draw streak
The past four meetings between Gil Vicente and Rio Ave ended in draws, including a 0-0 stalemate in their previous encounter.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.