Maritimo Madeira — Casa Pia Lisbon: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.1% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.5% / 31.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.3% / 78.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.3% / 96.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.05.2023 away Estoril 1:3
- 19.05.2023 home Vizela 1:0
- 13.05.2023 away Sp Lisbon 1:2
- 07.05.2023 home Rio Ave 2:2
- 29.04.2023 home Guimaraes 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Rio Ave 1:1
- 11.05.2026 away Guimaraes 1:0
- 03.05.2026 home Tondela 0:1
- 27.04.2026 away Gil Vicente 1:2
- 23.04.2026 home Sp Braga 0:1
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 19.03.2023 Casa Pia Lisbon 2:0 Maritimo Madeira
- 03.10.2022 Maritimo Madeira 1:2 Casa Pia Lisbon
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Maritimo Madeira have a slight edge over Casa Pia Lisbon in this Liga Portugal meeting, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence advantage. That does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the scoring outlook is medium-scoring and the overall balance still leaves room for a closely fought match.
The possibility of both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, so the game could develop in several directions. The most plausible scenarios include a 1-1 draw, a narrow 1-0 win for Maritimo Madeira, or a goalless draw. Casa Pia Lisbon should therefore remain competitive, while Maritimo Madeira’s home advantage gives them the stronger position in a match where avoiding defeat appears more likely than a decisive margin.
What matters before kick-off
Maritimo's Top-Flight Return
Maritimo open their 2026-27 Primeira Liga campaign against Casa Pia following their promotion as Segunda Liga champions last season.
Casa Pia's Head-to-Head Record
Casa Pia won both of their previous league meetings against Maritimo during the 2022-23 Portuguese top-flight campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.