Maritimo Madeira — Casa Pia Lisbon: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.8% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 65.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.5% / 44.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.8% / 24.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.1% / 70.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Maritimo Madeira and Casa Pia Lisbon meet in Liga Portugal in a fixture that looks closely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with moderate confidence in an evenly matched contest. That suggests a game likely to be decided by small details rather than sustained dominance from either team.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with both teams finding the net remaining uncertain. A 1-1 draw is one plausible outcome, while 0-1 and 1-2 also reflect the possibility of Casa Pia Lisbon making better use of limited opportunities. Maritimo Madeira should still have a realistic path through home advantage and a disciplined approach, but Casa Pia Lisbon appear capable of keeping the match competitive and testing the hosts in transition. Overall, the fixture points toward a balanced encounter in which neither team can be separated comfortably before kickoff.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.