Union de Santa Fe — CA Sarmiento Junin: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.3% |
| 12 | 70.4% | |
| X2 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.7% / 10.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.4% / 26.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.7% / 54.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 21.08.2026 away Aldosivi 3:1
- 15.08.2026 away San Lorenzo 0:1
- 11.08.2026 home Central Cordoba 1:2
- 06.08.2026 home Lanus 2:1
- 01.08.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 2:0
- 16.08.2026 home Huracan 2:0
- 08.08.2026 away Atl. Tucuman 2:1
- 03.08.2026 home Ind. Rivadavia 2:1
- 28.07.2026 away Banfield 2:3
This season: Union de Santa Fe at home vs CA Sarmiento Junin away
| Metric | Union de Santa Fe · at home | CA Sarmiento Junin · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–2 | 2–0–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.02.2026 CA Sarmiento Junin 1:3 Union de Santa Fe
- 29.09.2024 CA Sarmiento Junin 1:0 Union de Santa Fe
- 02.03.2024 CA Sarmiento Junin 1:2 Union de Santa Fe
- 08.10.2023 Union de Santa Fe 1:0 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 15.05.2023 Union de Santa Fe 0:2 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 09.09.2022 Union de Santa Fe 1:0 CA Sarmiento Junin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Union de Santa Fe enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a slight but credible advantage over CA Sarmiento Junin. The assessment favours the hosts, although the margin between the teams is not wide enough to suggest a one-sided contest. Union de Santa Fe should look to make their home setting count, while CA Sarmiento Junin will have a realistic opportunity to keep the match close.
The expected scoring pattern is moderate rather than openly high-tempo. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the game could develop into either a controlled home victory or a balanced draw depending on which side converts its opportunities. The most plausible scenarios point towards a narrow result, with a level score also well within the range of outcomes. Overall, the hosts hold the clearer edge, but CA Sarmiento Junin remain capable of resisting pressure and taking something from the match.
What matters before kick-off
Suspension for Unión
Unión de Santa Fe midfielder Julián Palacios is unavailable for the matchday 7 fixture against Sarmiento after being sent off in the previous round.
Sarmiento's winning streak
Facundo Sava's Sarmiento de Junín enters the match on a four-game winning streak, including a 2-0 home victory against Estudiantes.
Unión's recent result
Unión de Santa Fe ended a two-match losing streak in their previous fixture by securing a 3-1 victory away against Aldosivi.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.