Boca Juniors — CA Lanus: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.6% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.2% / 90.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.4% / 96.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.08.2026 away Racing Club 1:1
- 16.08.2026 away Platense 1:1
- 08.08.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 1:1
- 05.08.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 1:0
- 02.08.2026 away Newells Old Boys 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.08.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 1:1
- 17.08.2026 home Independiente 1:3
- 12.08.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 3:0
- 06.08.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 1:2
- 03.08.2026 home Instituto 0:1
This season: Boca Juniors at home vs CA Lanus away
| Metric | Boca Juniors · at home | CA Lanus · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–7–0 | 3–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.45 | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.03.2026 CA Lanus 0:3 Boca Juniors
- 11.05.2025 Boca Juniors 0:0 CA Lanus
- 03.11.2024 CA Lanus 1:0 Boca Juniors
- 19.02.2024 CA Lanus 2:1 Boca Juniors
- 23.09.2023 Boca Juniors 1:1 CA Lanus
- 11.06.2023 Boca Juniors 1:1 CA Lanus
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Boca Juniors have a slight but meaningful edge over CA Lanus in this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture. The assessment points toward a relatively balanced contest, although the home side is viewed as clearly better positioned to avoid defeat. That gives Boca Juniors the stronger overall outlook, while CA Lanus remain credible opponents in a match where the margin between the teams may stay narrow.
The scoring expectation is moderate rather than highly open. The most plausible paths include a narrow Boca Juniors victory, a draw, or a controlled home win without conceding. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so that aspect should be treated as evenly balanced. Overall, the analytical signal favours Boca Juniors or a draw, with the hosts holding the greater share of the advantage but no definitive result indicated.
What matters before kick-off
Tomas Aranda Injury for Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors midfielder Tomas Aranda underwent successful surgery after suffering a fibula fracture during training and has begun his rehabilitation.
Boca Juniors Return to La Bombonera
Boca Juniors return to play at their La Bombonera stadium against Lanus after playing recent home matches at Huracan's ground due to pitch renovations.
Recent Winless Runs Ahead of the Match
Boca Juniors enter matchday seven of the Torneo Clausura following three consecutive 1-1 draws in the league, while Lanus are winless in their last two league matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.