CA Rosario Central — Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.6% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.4% / 55.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.7% / 27.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.08.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 2:2
- 17.08.2026 away Barracas Central 1:0
- 07.08.2026 home Aldosivi 2:1
- 02.08.2026 away River Plate 1:0
- 29.07.2026 home Racing Club 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 2:3
- 15.08.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:4
- 09.08.2026 home Barracas Central 2:0
- 02.08.2026 away Aldosivi 2:1
- 29.07.2026 home River Plate 1:0
This season: CA Rosario Central at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata away
| Metric | CA Rosario Central · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–4–2 | 6–1–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 0.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.83 | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 38% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.02.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 1:2 CA Rosario Central
- 27.09.2025 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 0:3 CA Rosario Central
- 15.03.2025 CA Rosario Central 2:1 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 05.08.2024 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 0:1 CA Rosario Central
- 18.02.2024 CA Rosario Central 2:1 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 23.09.2023 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 2:1 CA Rosario Central
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Rosario Central enter this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a moderate but clear advantage over Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata. The assessment points toward the home side as the stronger team, although the confidence level is not high enough to suggest an outcome without uncertainty. Home advantage is therefore an important part of the reading, while Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata remain capable of making the contest competitive.
The scoring outlook is medium, with the most plausible scorelines indicating a narrow CA Rosario Central victory rather than a one-sided match. A controlled 1:0 or 2:0 home win fits the overall balance, while 1:1 reflects the uncertainty around whether both teams will find the net. That aspect is viewed as evenly balanced, so the match could develop through a tight opening and remain close deep into the game. Kickoff is scheduled for 29 August 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
What matters before kick-off
Rosario Central recent result
Rosario Central enter matchday 7 of the Torneo Clausura following a 2-2 draw away at Talleres.
Gimnasia La Plata recent result
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata enter matchday 7 after suffering a 3-2 home defeat against Gimnasia de Mendoza.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.