Union de Santa Fe — CA Central Cordoba SE: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.0% |
| 12 | 77.3% | |
| X2 | 34.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.4% / 58.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.0% / 54.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Union de Santa Fe enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a moderate but meaningful advantage over CA Central Cordoba SE. The available assessment points to the hosts as clearly stronger, while the expected character of the match is medium-scoring rather than an open contest dominated by chances. That combination suggests Union de Santa Fe should be able to control important phases of the game, particularly if they impose their rhythm early.
CA Central Cordoba SE still have a path into the match, especially if they remain compact and frustrate the home side’s attacking movements. However, the same assessment indicates that a clean sheet is likely, which places greater pressure on the visitors to make limited opportunities count. The most plausible score patterns are narrow home victories, with 1-0 and 2-0 standing out, while 1-1 remains a credible alternative if Union de Santa Fe cannot turn territorial control into a decisive second goal.
What matters before kick-off
Unión fitness concerns
Unión de Santa Fe's coaching staff is assessing Lucas Menossi and Ayala ahead of the match after both finished their previous game against Lanús with physical discomfort.
Recent league results
In their previous Torneo Clausura fixture, Unión de Santa Fe defeated Lanús 2-1, while Central Córdoba SE earned a 1-0 win over San Lorenzo courtesy of a goal from Michael Santos.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.