Trabzonspor — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.8% |
| 12 | 87.2% | |
| X2 | 23.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.2% / 1.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.10.2026 home Besiktas 2:0
- 10.10.2026 away Samsunspor 3:0
- 19.09.2026 home Galatasaray 4:0
- 12.09.2026 away Konyaspor 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Genclerbirligi 5:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Celtic 1:7
- 10.10.2026 home St Mirren 5:0
- 19.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Falkirk 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Dundee 2:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 5.50 → now 6.50 |
| W2 | was 10.00 → now 8.00 |
Match preview
Trabzonspor enter this UEFA Conference League meeting with Heart of Midlothian FC holding a moderate but clear advantage. Their recent form has produced three wins and two defeats, but the most striking feature is their attacking output: 13 goals scored and only 3 conceded across their last five matches. That combination suggests a side capable of creating sustained pressure while remaining relatively solid defensively. Trabzonspor will look to build on this balance and use their greater recent efficiency in front of goal to control the contest.
Heart of Midlothian FC have also recorded two wins and two defeats in their last five matches, alongside one draw, but their defensive record is less convincing. They have scored 10 goals while conceding 11, indicating a more open pattern of results and a greater vulnerability at the back. Their attacking contribution gives them a potential route into the game, although containing Trabzonspor's recent scoring form will be a significant challenge.
The overall balance favours Trabzonspor, particularly given the contrast in goals conceded. A relatively high-scoring match is a reasonable expectation, with the hosts better placed to dictate proceedings. Heart of Midlothian FC may still find opportunities, but Trabzonspor appear the stronger side heading into this fixture.
What matters before kick-off
UEFA Conference League Match
Trabzonspor host Heart of Midlothian on 22 October 2026 in matchday 2 of the UEFA Conference League league phase.
Matchday 1 Results
On matchday 1 of the UEFA Conference League league phase, Trabzonspor defeated KuPS 4-2, while Heart of Midlothian drew with Nordsjælland.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.