Match intelligence

FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade — FC Copenhagen: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

League: UEFA Conference League · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade2
:
2FC Copenhagen
Locked signal 1X Probability 67.7% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 41.3% Home win FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
X 26.4% Draw
W2 32.3% Away win FC Copenhagen
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1273.6%
Both teams to score
Yes60.1%
Totals 2.5
Over56.4%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X67.7%
1273.6%
X258.7%
Both teams to scoreYes/No60.1% / 39.9%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 93.7% / 6.3%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 80.2% / 19.8%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 56.4% / 43.6%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 34.0% / 66.0%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 17.5% / 82.5%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.8% / 92.2%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade × FC Copenhagen
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.3%
0:1 6.2%
0:2 4.9%
0:3 2.3%
0:4 0.8%
0:5 0.2%
1
1:0 7.3%
1:1 12.4%
1:2 7.8%
1:3 3.6%
1:4 1.2%
1:5 0.3%
2
2:0 6.5%
2:1 8.9%
2:2 6.1%
2:3 2.8%
2:4 1.0%
2:5 0.3%
3
3:0 3.4%
3:1 4.7%
3:2 3.2%
3:3 1.5%
3:4 0.5%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 1.3%
4:1 1.8%
4:2 1.3%
4:3 0.6%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.4%
5:1 0.6%
5:2 0.4%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.4%
2:18.9%
1:27.8%
1:07.3%
2:06.5%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 22.10.2026

FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade

Last 4 matches · latest first

  • 15.10.2026 away FC Lugano 2:3
  • 11.08.2026 home Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC 0:2
  • 04.08.2026 away Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC 0:1
  • 29.07.2026 home Larne FC 5:0

FC Copenhagen

Last 4 matches · latest first

  • 15.10.2026 home SC Braga 3:0
  • 12.08.2026 home Debreceni VSC 5:1
  • 06.08.2026 away Debreceni VSC 3:0
  • 29.07.2026 home FC Polissya Zhytomyr 2:1

Head-to-head

No previous meetings found in the available data.

Sources: oddmind.app. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

Odds movement

W1 was 2.20 → now 2.30
W2 was 3.00 → now 2.90
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade face FC Copenhagen in the UEFA Conference League in a contest that looks evenly matched overall, although the teams arrive with contrasting recent records. The hosts have lost three of their last four matches, recording just one win in that sequence. Despite scoring seven goals, they have conceded six, suggesting that their attacking output has not consistently translated into positive results. Improving their defensive stability will be important against an opponent who has shown greater consistency in recent weeks.

FC Copenhagen come into this fixture with four consecutive wins, scoring 13 goals and conceding only two across those matches. That balance between attacking productivity and defensive solidity gives the visitors a strong foundation, even away from home. Their recent form is clearly superior to that of FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade, but the overall assessment remains cautious rather than decisive. The hosts still have an opportunity to make the contest competitive, particularly if they can take advantage of their attacking moments.

A medium-scoring encounter appears plausible, with both teams capable of finding the net. FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade will need a more reliable defensive performance, while FC Copenhagen will look to maintain their recent momentum. The contrasting form makes this an intriguing fixture, with neither side clearly separated from the other in the overall match outlook.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Crvena Zvezda recent results

Crvena Zvezda opened their UEFA Conference League campaign with a 3-2 loss against Lugano, but bounced back with a 5-1 home victory over Mladost in the Serbian SuperLiga.

Schedule

FC Copenhagen Conference League start

FC Copenhagen began their UEFA Conference League league phase campaign with a decisive 3-0 victory over Braga on matchday one.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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