Pafos FC — Riga FC: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

Pafos FC enter their UEFA Conference League meeting with Riga FC holding a slight home advantage, although recent form suggests this will be a competitive contest. Pafos FC have recorded one win, one draw and two defeats across their last four matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 7. Their attacking output has been respectable, but the defensive record highlights some inconsistency that could give the visitors opportunities. Playing at home may offer Pafos FC a useful advantage, yet their recent results provide limited grounds for expecting a comfortable performance.

Riga FC arrive in better recent form, remaining unbeaten across their last four matches, with two wins and two draws. They have also scored 8 goals, while conceding only 4, giving them the stronger defensive record of the two sides over this period. That balance makes Riga FC a credible threat, particularly if they can maintain their recent defensive discipline and exploit openings in the home defence. The contrast between Pafos FC's inconsistent results and Riga FC's steadier performances makes the outcome difficult to call with confidence.

Pafos FC have a slight edge overall, largely because of home advantage, but Riga FC's recent consistency keeps the contest finely balanced. A moderately open match appears plausible, with both sides capable of scoring. A narrow home win or a draw would fit the overall assessment, while Riga FC cannot be discounted.