FK Jablonec — Brighton & Hove Albion: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 13.8% |
| 12 | 90.9% | |
| X2 | 95.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.0% / 56.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.0% / 2.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.3% / 27.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.7% / 82.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 10.00 → now 15.00 |
| X | was 6.25 → now 8.50 |
| W2 | was 1.25 → now 1.14 |
Match preview
FK Jablonec face a demanding challenge against Brighton & Hove Albion in the UEFA Conference League, with the visitors holding a clear advantage on the overall assessment. Brighton & Hove Albion are expected to have the stronger side of the contest, making an away win the most compelling outcome to consider. FK Jablonec will need to remain organised and make effective use of their opportunities if they are to disrupt the visitors' expected control. The difference in perceived strength suggests that Brighton & Hove Albion should be better positioned to dictate the tempo and create the more promising attacking situations.
The match also has the potential to produce several goals, pointing towards an open contest rather than a tightly restricted affair. Brighton & Hove Albion have a credible path to scoring multiple times, with a controlled performance potentially allowing them to establish a decisive advantage. However, whether FK Jablonec find the net is less clear, so a match in which only the visitors score remains a realistic possibility alongside one where both teams contribute. Overall, the balance favours Brighton & Hove Albion, with a multi-goal game a reasonable expectation. FK Jablonec's main challenge will be to limit the visitors' attacking influence and keep the contest competitive for as long as possible.
What matters before kick-off
Conference League Matchday 1 Results
Brighton & Hove Albion opened their UEFA Conference League league phase campaign with a 4-0 victory against FK Kauno Žalgiris, whereas FK Jablonec suffered a 2-3 defeat to Freiburg in their first matchday.
Brighton's European Clean Sheet Record
Heading into Matchday 2 against FK Jablonec, Brighton & Hove Albion have yet to concede a goal in three European fixtures played this season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.