Toulouse FC — ESTAC Troyes: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

Toulouse FC head into this Ligue 1 meeting with ESTAC Troyes as the stronger side on current form, although their home performances suggest there is still room for improvement. Toulouse FC have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding seven. Their attacking output provides grounds for optimism, but their record at home has been less convincing, with one win and two defeats in three games. They have nevertheless shown an ability to create considerably more chances than they allow, which could prove important against an opponent struggling to generate opportunities.

ESTAC Troyes arrive under greater pressure after losing their last five matches, scoring just three goals while conceding 15. Their position near the bottom of the table reflects those difficulties, and their away performances offer limited reassurance. They have conceded five goals in three away games and are described as allowing substantially more chances than they create. Toulouse FC therefore have a clear advantage in the overall matchup, particularly in their ability to apply attacking pressure.

The game could produce goals at both ends, given Toulouse FC's defensive record and ESTAC Troyes' recent struggles at the back. However, the hosts have the stronger overall profile, making a Toulouse FC victory the more plausible outcome, with moderate confidence rather than certainty.