Match intelligence

Angers SCO — FC Lorient: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

League: Ligue 1 (France) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Angers SCO0
:
0FC Lorient
Locked signal X2 Probability 68.6% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 31.4% Home win Angers SCO
X 28.4% Draw
W2 40.2% Away win FC Lorient
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1271.6%
Both teams to score
Yes55.2%
Totals 2.5
Under50.3%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X59.8%
1271.6%
X268.6%
Both teams to scoreYes/No55.2% / 44.8%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 91.8% / 8.2%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 75.7% / 24.3%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 49.7% / 50.3%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 27.8% / 72.2%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 13.2% / 86.8%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 5.4% / 94.6%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Angers SCO × FC Lorient
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 8.2%
0:1 8.7%
0:2 7.1%
0:3 3.4%
0:4 1.2%
0:5 0.3%
1
1:0 7.4%
1:1 13.6%
1:2 8.8%
1:3 4.2%
1:4 1.5%
1:5 0.4%
2
2:0 5.3%
2:1 7.6%
2:2 5.4%
2:3 2.6%
2:4 0.9%
2:5 0.3%
3
3:0 2.2%
3:1 3.1%
3:2 2.2%
3:3 1.1%
3:4 0.4%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 0.7%
4:1 1.0%
4:2 0.7%
4:3 0.3%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.2%
5:1 0.2%
5:2 0.2%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.6%
1:28.8%
0:18.7%
0:08.2%
2:17.6%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026

Angers SCO

15th place · 7 pts after 7

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 18.10.2026 home Marseille 2:5
  • 10.10.2026 away Brest 1:5
  • 19.09.2026 home Troyes 2:0
  • 12.09.2026 away Le Havre 0:0
  • 06.09.2026 home Rennes 1:2

FC Lorient

8th place · 11 pts after 7

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 18.10.2026 home Monaco 1:0
  • 10.10.2026 home Paris FC 1:0
  • 19.09.2026 away Le Mans 1:2
  • 12.09.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
  • 05.09.2026 away Lens 1:0

This season: Angers SCO at home vs FC Lorient away

Metric Angers SCO · at home FC Lorient · away
Matches43
W–D–L1–0–31–1–1
Goals scored per match1.250.67
Goals conceded per match2.250.67
xG for per match2.031.28
xG against per match1.631.07
Shots on target per match2.752.33
Corners per match6.002.00
Over 2.5 goals50%33%
Both teams scored50%33%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Angers SCO wins2
Draws2
FC Lorient wins2
Goals per match1.33
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
  • 15.02.2026 FC Lorient 2:0 Angers SCO
  • 26.10.2025 Angers SCO 2:0 FC Lorient
  • 05.02.2023 FC Lorient 0:0 Angers SCO
  • 01.01.2023 Angers SCO 1:2 FC Lorient
  • 16.01.2022 FC Lorient 0:0 Angers SCO
  • 21.11.2021 Angers SCO 1:0 FC Lorient

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Angers SCO face FC Lorient in Ligue 1 in a contest that looks relatively balanced on the surface, although recent form gives the visitors reasons for greater confidence. Angers SCO have won just one of their last five matches, losing three and drawing one, while conceding 12 goals and scoring six. Their home record is also a concern, with three defeats in four matches on their own ground. Sitting 15th with seven points after seven games, they need a more consistent defensive performance to improve their position.

FC Lorient arrive in stronger form, having recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat across their last five matches. They have scored six goals and conceded four over that period, suggesting a more reliable balance between attack and defence. Their away record is less dominant, with one win, one draw and one loss in three matches, but they have conceded only twice on the road. Positioned seventh with 11 points, FC Lorient have shown greater consistency than their opponents.

The overall balance points towards a competitive match with a slight edge for FC Lorient. Angers SCO can make the contest difficult at home, particularly if they limit defensive errors, but their recent results offer little reassurance. A moderate scoring game appears plausible, with a draw or a narrow away victory both credible outcomes.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Angers' difficult recent streak

Angers SCO enter their Ligue 1 fixture against FC Lorient following consecutive heavy defeats against Brest (5-1) and Marseille (5-2).

Schedule

Strong defensive form for Lorient

FC Lorient enter this match having secured two consecutive 1-0 victories in Ligue 1 against Paris FC and Monaco.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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