AJ Auxerre — Le Mans FC: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.6% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.5% / 38.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.2% / 17.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.0% / 41.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.6% / 63.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.5% / 80.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
AJ Auxerre
13th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Le Havre 3:1
- 11.10.2026 away Rennes 1:4
- 20.09.2026 home Brest 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Nice 1:0
- 04.09.2026 away Lyon 1:3
Le Mans FC
16th place · 6 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.10.2026 home Toulouse 0:3
- 10.10.2026 away Paris SG 1:3
- 19.09.2026 home Lorient 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home Lens 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Nice 1:1
This season: AJ Auxerre at home vs Le Mans FC away
| Metric | AJ Auxerre · at home | Le Mans FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–1 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.33 | 1.90 |
| xG against per match | 1.05 | 2.69 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 10.01.2020 Le Mans FC 0:1 AJ Auxerre
- 02.08.2019 AJ Auxerre 2:0 Le Mans FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AJ Auxerre have a slight edge over Le Mans FC heading into this Ligue 1 fixture, with their stronger recent results and home advantage providing reasons for cautious optimism. AJ Auxerre have won three of their last five matches, scoring 8 goals, although they have also conceded 9, suggesting that defensive consistency remains an issue. Their home record offers a more encouraging picture: two wins from three matches, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded. However, the balance of chances created and allowed at home indicates that they have not consistently controlled games.
Le Mans FC arrive in less convincing form, having recorded one win, two draws and two defeats across their last five matches. They have conceded 10 goals in that period, while their away record shows no wins in three games, with two losses and one draw. Their tendency to allow more chances than they create could give AJ Auxerre opportunities to take control, particularly if the hosts make effective use of their home advantage. The league standings also favour AJ Auxerre, who sit 12th with 9 points, compared with Le Mans FC in 16th on 6 points. The previous meeting, in 2020, ended in a 1-0 victory for AJ Auxerre. Overall, the hosts hold a narrow but credible advantage in a match where both teams may find opportunities to score.
What matters before kick-off
Auxerre's recent victory
In their last Ligue 1 match, AJ Auxerre secured a 3-1 away win against Le Havre, courtesy of a brace from Danny Namaso and a goal from Romain Faivre.
Head-to-head record
AJ Auxerre boast a higher win rate in competitive head-to-head matches against Le Mans (56% – 10 wins in 18 games) than against any other opponent faced 15 or more times in the last 55 years.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.