AS Monaco — Lille OSC: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.4% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.5% / 66.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
AS Monaco
5th place · 14 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Lorient 0:1
- 10.10.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
- 18.09.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Strasbourg 1:1
- 04.09.2026 away Paris SG 2:1
Lille OSC
3rd place · 14 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Brest 1:1
- 10.10.2026 home Le Havre 1:0
- 20.09.2026 away Nice 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Troyes 2:0
- 03.09.2026 away Toulouse 1:0
This season: AS Monaco at home vs Lille OSC away
| Metric | AS Monaco · at home | Lille OSC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 2–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.36 | 1.37 |
| xG against per match | 1.23 | 2.31 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 7.33 |
| Corners per match | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2026 AS Monaco 0:1 Lille OSC
- 24.08.2025 Lille OSC 1:0 AS Monaco
- 22.02.2025 Lille OSC 2:1 AS Monaco
- 18.10.2024 AS Monaco 0:0 Lille OSC
- 24.04.2024 AS Monaco 1:0 Lille OSC
- 29.10.2023 Lille OSC 2:0 AS Monaco
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AS Monaco enter this Ligue 1 meeting with Lille OSC holding a slight edge, particularly given their solid home record. They have collected 14 points from seven matches and sit fifth in the table, just below Lille OSC, who have the same points total and occupy fourth place. AS Monaco have won two and drawn one of their three home games this season, scoring six goals and conceding three. Their recent form has been mixed but steady, with two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches.
Lille OSC arrive in better recent form, having won three of their last five games, with one draw and one defeat. They have also shown effectiveness away from home, winning two of their three matches on the road and conceding only twice. However, their away performances suggest they can allow opponents more opportunities than they create, which could give AS Monaco room to exploit their home advantage. The historical record also favours Lille OSC, who have won four of the last six meetings, including a 1-0 victory in the most recent encounter in 2026.
Overall, the teams appear closely matched, with AS Monaco having a narrow advantage through their home consistency. A competitive, moderately scoring contest looks plausible, and both sides have a reasonable route to finding the net.
What matters before kick-off
European midweek results for both sides
Heading into their Ligue 1 clash, AS Monaco secured a 3-0 home victory against Freiburg in the UEFA Conference League, while Lille suffered a 4-2 home defeat against Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League.
Tight contest near the top of Ligue 1
Both AS Monaco and Lille enter matchday eight level on 14 points each after their opening seven Ligue 1 fixtures.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.