Olympique Marseille — Le Havre AC: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

Olympique Marseille enter this Ligue 1 meeting with a clear advantage over Le Havre AC, although their recent performances suggest there is still room for improvement. Marseille have won two and lost three of their last five matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding eight. Their attacking output has been encouraging, but defensive consistency remains a concern. They have also struggled to establish control at home, winning only one of their three league matches on their own ground and conceding five goals in that span. This leaves some uncertainty around how comfortably they can impose themselves despite the favourable overall matchup.

Le Havre AC arrive in a more difficult position, sitting 18th with two points from seven matches. They have lost four of their last five games, scoring four goals and conceding nine, and are still without an away victory this season. Marseille's historical advantage is another important factor: they have won all six recorded meetings between the sides, including a 1-0 victory in their most recent encounter in 2026. Five of those six meetings produced more than two goals, while both teams scored in four. Marseille are clearly stronger on balance, with moderate confidence in a home win. Given their defensive vulnerabilities and Le Havre AC's need to respond, an open contest with opportunities at both ends is a reasonable expectation.