Match intelligence

SV Zulte Waregem — KRC Genk: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026

League: First Division A (Belgium) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

× Prediction missed
SV Zulte Waregem2
:
1KRC Genk
Locked signal X2 Probability 70.0% Verdict Miss
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 30.0% Home win SV Zulte Waregem
X 24.5% Draw
W2 45.5% Away win KRC Genk
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1275.5%
Both teams to score
Yes60.7%
Totals 2.5
Over58.5%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X54.5%
1275.5%
X270.0%
Both teams to scoreYes/No60.7% / 39.3%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.8% / 5.2%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 81.1% / 18.9%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 58.5% / 41.5%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 36.1% / 63.9%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 19.1% / 80.9%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 8.8% / 91.2%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

SV Zulte Waregem × KRC Genk
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 5.2%
0:1 7.7%
0:2 6.9%
0:3 3.9%
0:4 1.7%
0:5 0.6%
1
1:0 6.0%
1:1 11.3%
1:2 9.3%
1:3 5.2%
1:4 2.2%
1:5 0.8%
2
2:0 4.3%
2:1 7.3%
2:2 6.2%
2:3 3.5%
2:4 1.5%
2:5 0.5%
3
3:0 1.9%
3:1 3.3%
3:2 2.8%
3:3 1.6%
3:4 0.7%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 0.6%
4:1 1.1%
4:2 0.9%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.2%
5:1 0.3%
5:2 0.2%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.3%
1:29.3%
0:17.7%
2:17.3%
0:26.9%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 09.05.2026 home Dender 2:1
  • 01.05.2026 away Cercle Brugge 3:2
  • 26.04.2026 home RAAL La Louviere 4:0
  • 19.04.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 2:0
  • 12.04.2026 away Dender 2:1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 23.05.2026 away Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2:0
  • 19.05.2026 home Antwerp 0:0
  • 16.05.2026 away Standard 0:0
  • 10.05.2026 home Westerlo 3:0
  • 02.05.2026 away Charleroi 0:2

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

SV Zulte Waregem wins1
Draws0
KRC Genk wins5
Goals per match4.00
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 17.01.2026 SV Zulte Waregem 2:1 KRC Genk
  • 31.08.2025 KRC Genk 3:2 SV Zulte Waregem
  • 14.01.2023 KRC Genk 1:0 SV Zulte Waregem
  • 14.08.2022 SV Zulte Waregem 1:4 KRC Genk
  • 06.02.2022 KRC Genk 2:0 SV Zulte Waregem
  • 31.10.2021 SV Zulte Waregem 2:6 KRC Genk

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

SV Zulte Waregem face KRC Genk in a First Division A meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the moderate confidence level suggests a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. KRC Genk appear better placed to control important phases of the match, but SV Zulte Waregem should have opportunities to make the game uncomfortable, particularly if they can maintain pressure and turn possession into chances.

The scoring outlook is medium, with both teams likely to find the net. That points towards an open enough match without suggesting a constant flow of clear opportunities. SV Zulte Waregem will need defensive concentration to limit KRC Genk's attacking threat, while KRC Genk must avoid allowing the hosts to gain momentum in the final third. Overall, the balance of the assessment favours KRC Genk avoiding defeat, with a draw remaining a credible outcome if SV Zulte Waregem can make better use of their chances.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Pro League season opener

The matchday 1 fixture of the 2026/27 Belgian Pro League season between SV Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk takes place at the Elindus Arena.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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