KVC Westerlo — Union Saint-Gilloise: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 44.8% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 80.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.1% / 94.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
KVC Westerlo host Union Saint-Gilloise in a First Division A meeting that looks relatively open, with a medium-scoring contest the most plausible general profile. The assessment gives Union Saint-Gilloise a slight edge, but the low confidence level points to a match where the balance could change through individual moments rather than a clear difference between the sides.
A draw remains a realistic possibility, with 1:1 among the likely scorelines, while 0:1 and 0:2 also reflect the visitors’ marginal advantage. The expectation that both teams score is finely balanced, so there is no strong basis for assuming either a one-sided game or an exchange of goals. KVC Westerlo will have home advantage, but Union Saint-Gilloise carry the stronger overall signal in this matchup.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.