Stoke City — Bristol City: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.9% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 59.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Stoke City
7th place · 19 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Derby 1:0
- 13.10.2026 home Middlesbrough 2:3
- 10.10.2026 away Bolton 2:1
- 19.09.2026 home Sheffield United 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Watford 2:1
Bristol City
15th place · 14 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Sheffield United 0:1
- 13.10.2026 home Blackburn 0:1
- 10.10.2026 away Charlton 1:1
- 18.09.2026 home Watford 1:0
- 15.09.2026 home Lincoln 0:1
This season: Stoke City at home vs Bristol City away
| Metric | Stoke City · at home | Bristol City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–2 | 2–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xG for per match | 0.84 | 1.61 |
| xG against per match | 1.09 | 1.53 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| Corners per match | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.05.2026 Bristol City 2:0 Stoke City
- 01.11.2025 Stoke City 5:1 Bristol City
- 12.02.2025 Bristol City 2:0 Stoke City
- 22.10.2024 Stoke City 2:2 Bristol City
- 04.05.2024 Stoke City 4:0 Bristol City
- 30.09.2023 Bristol City 2:3 Stoke City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.45 → now 2.35 |
| W2 | was 2.88 → now 3.00 |
Match preview
Stoke City enter Saturday's Championship meeting with Bristol City in stronger recent form, having won four of their last five matches while scoring nine goals. Sitting seventh in the table, the hosts have also recorded three wins from five home fixtures this season. Bristol City, meanwhile, occupy 16th place and have managed just one victory in their previous five outings, scoring only twice during that sequence.
Despite this contrast, the teams appear relatively evenly matched overall, with a slight preference for Stoke City to avoid defeat. Bristol City's away record deserves consideration: two wins, two draws and just one loss from five trips suggest they remain competitive on the road. Their previous meeting also ended in a 2-0 victory for Bristol City, providing another reason not to underestimate the visitors.
A medium-scoring contest looks plausible, although neither side holds a clear advantage in the underlying balance of chances created and allowed. Both teams finding the net remains uncertain. A 1-1 draw is a reasonable central scenario, while narrow Stoke City victories by 2-1 or 1-0 are credible alternatives.
What matters before kick-off
Williams and Tolaj return for Bristol City
Bristol City head coach Michael Skubala confirmed ahead of the match that Joe Williams and Lorent Tolaj have recovered from injuries and are in contention for the squad.
Stoke City head into match following win at Derby County
In their previous Championship outing, Stoke City secured a 1-0 away victory over Derby County thanks to a goal from Luke Graham.
Bristol City aiming to halt winless run
Bristol City suffered a 1-0 home loss against Sheffield United last weekend and enter the trip to Staffordshire on a three-match winless streak.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.