Stade Brest 29 — OGC Nice: Win probabilities, 23.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 58.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.3% / 36.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.0% / 17.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.4% / 62.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.1% / 79.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.4% / 90.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.10.2026
Stade Brest 29
10th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Lille 1:1
- 10.10.2026 home Angers 5:1
- 20.09.2026 away Auxerre 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Paris SG 0:1
- 05.09.2026 away Le Havre 2:1
OGC Nice
13th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Lyon 1:2
- 11.10.2026 home Strasbourg 2:1
- 20.09.2026 home Lille 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Auxerre 0:1
- 05.09.2026 home Le Mans 1:1
This season: Stade Brest 29 at home vs OGC Nice away
| Metric | Stade Brest 29 · at home | OGC Nice · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–1 | 0–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.60 | 1.09 |
| xG against per match | 1.22 | 2.04 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| Corners per match | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.02.2026 OGC Nice 2:2 Stade Brest 29
- 20.09.2025 Stade Brest 29 4:1 OGC Nice
- 17.05.2025 OGC Nice 6:0 Stade Brest 29
- 02.11.2024 Stade Brest 29 0:1 OGC Nice
- 04.02.2024 Stade Brest 29 0:0 OGC Nice
- 01.10.2023 OGC Nice 0:0 Stade Brest 29
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.20 → now 2.30 |
| W2 | was 3.20 → now 3.00 |
Match preview
Stade Brest 29 have a slight edge over OGC Nice ahead of this Ligue 1 meeting, with home advantage and the visitors’ away struggles providing the clearest reasons for cautious optimism. Stade Brest 29 sit 10th with 9 points from 7 matches, just ahead of OGC Nice in 13th with 8 points. Both teams have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats across their last five matches, so recent form alone does little to separate them. However, Stade Brest 29 have scored 9 goals in that sequence compared with OGC Nice’s 6, suggesting the hosts have shown greater attacking output.
The home and away records offer a more telling contrast. Stade Brest 29 have taken one win and one draw from three home matches, scoring 7 goals, while OGC Nice have lost all three away games and scored only once, conceding 6 goals. Stade Brest 29 also create clearly more chances than they allow at home, whereas OGC Nice have struggled to generate opportunities on the road. These patterns support a modest home advantage, although neither side has established consistent form. The teams could both find scoring opportunities in a match with a moderate scoring profile. With their recent results closely matched, Stade Brest 29 have the stronger overall position, but OGC Nice remain capable of making the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Brest's previous match result
In matchday 7 of Ligue 1, Stade Brestois 29 played out a 1-1 away draw against Lille. Mama Balde scored the opening goal for Brest.
Julien Lachuer appointed as Brest head coach
Ahead of the 2026/27 season, Stade Brestois 29 appointed Julien Lachuer as head coach, following his role as assistant coach at the club since January 2023.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.