Sporting CP — Vitoria SC Guimaraes: Win probabilities, 14.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.6% |
| 12 | 83.5% | |
| X2 | 26.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.2% / 36.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.1% / 58.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.0% / 77.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.08.2026
Sporting CP
6th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away Estrela 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:0
- 11.05.2026 away Rio Ave 4:1
- 04.05.2026 home Guimaraes 5:1
- 29.04.2026 home Tondela 2:2
Vitoria SC Guimaraes
15th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 home Arouca 0:1
- 16.05.2026 away Nacional 0:2
- 11.05.2026 home Casa Pia 0:1
- 04.05.2026 away Sp Lisbon 1:5
- 25.04.2026 home Rio Ave 2:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.05.2026 Sporting CP 5:1 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 23.12.2025 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 1:4 Sporting CP
- 17.05.2025 Sporting CP 2:0 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 03.01.2025 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 4:4 Sporting CP
- 21.04.2024 Sporting CP 3:0 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 09.12.2023 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 3:2 Sporting CP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sporting CP meet Vitoria SC Guimaraes in Liga Portugal on 14 August 2026, with the hosts holding a clear edge in the pre-match assessment. The confidence in a Sporting CP victory is high, pointing to a significant difference in the expected strength of the two sides. That makes the home win the central outcome, although the match should still be approached as a contest rather than a foregone conclusion.
The scoring outlook is for an open and potentially high-scoring game, with Sporting CP expected to have the greater attacking influence. The possibility of both teams finding the net remains balanced, so a clean sheet for Sporting CP is plausible but not the only reasonable scenario. The most likely scorelines are 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0, all of which underline the same general expectation: Sporting CP should control the match and create the clearer opportunities, while Vitoria SC Guimaraes will need to be efficient when chances arise.
What matters before kick-off
Sporting CP's Opening Day Draw
Sporting CP opened their 2026/27 Liga Portugal campaign with a 2-2 away draw against Estrela Amadora, having held a two-goal lead following strikes from Fotis Ioannidis and Rodrigo Zalazar.
Vitoria SC's Season Opener Defeat
Vitoria SC began their new Primeira Liga season with a 1-0 home loss against Arouca.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.