FC Arouca — Moreirense FC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.9% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.0% / 26.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
FC Arouca
4th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away Guimaraes 1:0
- 16.05.2026 home Tondela 3:1
- 11.05.2026 away Gil Vicente 3:1
- 02.05.2026 home Santa Clara 2:2
- 24.04.2026 away Alverca 1:2
Moreirense FC
9th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Sp Braga 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home AVS 0:0
- 11.05.2026 away Tondela 0:2
- 02.05.2026 home Estrela 3:2
- 25.04.2026 away Benfica 1:4
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Moreirense FC 0:1 FC Arouca
- 02.11.2025 FC Arouca 0:2 Moreirense FC
- 24.01.2025 FC Arouca 1:0 Moreirense FC
- 18.08.2024 Moreirense FC 3:1 FC Arouca
- 17.03.2024 Moreirense FC 1:0 FC Arouca
- 27.10.2023 FC Arouca 0:1 Moreirense FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Arouca have a slight but meaningful edge over Moreirense FC in this Liga Portugal meeting. The available assessment points to a medium-scoring match, with the home side better placed overall but without a decisive gap between the teams. That makes the home advantage relevant, while the balance of the contest should remain competitive through much of the game.
The scoring outlook is uncertain on both sides, as the possibility of both teams finding the net is evenly balanced. The most plausible scenarios range from a narrow FC Arouca win to a draw, with a one-goal margin appearing more consistent with the overall profile than a dominant result. Moreirense FC should therefore remain involved, but the stronger lean is toward FC Arouca avoiding defeat, with the home side having the clearer route to the points.
What matters before kick-off
FC Arouca's league opener
FC Arouca opened their Liga Portugal season with a 1-0 away victory against Vitória de Guimarães, courtesy of a goal by Iván Barbero.
Moreirense FC's league opener
In the opening round of Liga Portugal, Moreirense FC recorded a 2-2 draw at home against SC Braga.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.