Casa Pia Lisbon — SL Benfica: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 17.0% |
| 12 | 87.8% | |
| X2 | 95.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.6% / 15.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.3% / 57.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.0% / 76.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.08.2026
Casa Pia Lisbon
16th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away Maritimo 0:1
- 16.05.2026 home Rio Ave 1:1
- 11.05.2026 away Guimaraes 1:0
- 03.05.2026 home Tondela 0:1
- 27.04.2026 away Gil Vicente 1:2
SL Benfica
10th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Academico Viseu 2:2
- 16.05.2026 away Estoril 3:1
- 11.05.2026 home Sp Braga 2:2
- 02.05.2026 away Famalicao 2:2
- 25.04.2026 home Moreirense 4:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 06.04.2026 Casa Pia Lisbon 1:1 SL Benfica
- 09.11.2025 SL Benfica 2:2 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 25.01.2025 Casa Pia Lisbon 3:1 SL Benfica
- 17.08.2024 SL Benfica 3:0 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 17.03.2024 Casa Pia Lisbon 0:1 SL Benfica
- 28.10.2023 SL Benfica 1:1 Casa Pia Lisbon
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Casa Pia Lisbon face SL Benfica in Liga Portugal on 17 August 2026, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear advantage. SL Benfica are rated as the stronger side, and the high confidence behind that view suggests that Casa Pia Lisbon may find it difficult to control the match or create enough sustained pressure. The most likely scorelines all favour the visitors, with a narrow away win and more comfortable victories both included.
The scoring outlook points toward an open game with several goals, although the assessment also indicates that a clean sheet is likely. That combination makes SL Benfica’s defensive control an important part of the preview: Casa Pia Lisbon may struggle to turn possession or attacking moments into a goal, while SL Benfica have the greater potential to make their opportunities count. Overall, the balance of the information points to an away win, with 0-1, 0-2, and 0-3 representing the main scoreline range rather than a closely matched contest.
What matters before kick-off
Benfica opened Liga Portugal campaign with a draw
Benfica started their 2026–27 Liga Portugal season with a 2-2 home draw against Académico de Viseu.
Casa Pia began the season with a defeat
Casa Pia started their 2026–27 Liga Portugal campaign with a 1-0 away defeat against Marítimo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.